# Institute for Automated Research — Wiki

> Open, machine-readable knowledge base on autonomous research methodology:
> the datasets, tools, and evaluation protocols behind autonomous,
> adversarially-verified research. Maintained by the Institute for Automated
> Research (https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org).

Every page below is also available as raw Markdown at the listed .md URL, and
the entire corpus is concatenated at https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/llms-full.txt. This content is
explicitly open to AI crawlers and reuse with attribution.

## Pages

- [A knowledge base for autonomous research](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/index.md): Open knowledge base on autonomous research methodology: the data, tools, and protocols behind autonomous, adversarially-verified research.
- [Browse by tag](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/tags.md): Every wiki page grouped by tag: by topic (asset pricing, macro, fundamentals), access (free, no-API-key, licensed), data shape (panel, time-series), source, dataset, and verification status. The fast way to find the dataset you need.
- [Commercial datasets for finance & economics research](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/index.md): Commercial data sources for finance and economics research: purchasable from a vendor or reachable through a licence such as WRDS. Access path and the gotchas that bite automated pipelines, with no provenance badge since they were not exercised here.
- [Confidential datasets in finance & economics research](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/index.md): Confidential supervisory, administrative, and single-counterparty microdata cited in the papers we distill: what the collection is and the gotchas, with no provenance badge since there is no access path that can be run here.
- [Openly available datasets for finance & economics research](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/index.md): Free, downloadable data sources for finance and economics research, with working access recipes and the gotchas that bite automated pipelines. The commercial and confidential tiers are documented separately.
- [AHA Annual Survey Database (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/aha-annual-survey.md): The American Hospital Association Annual Survey Database tracks U.S. hospital services, operations, beds, staffing, and system affiliation. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Ancestry.com death and genealogical records (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/ancestry-death-records.md): Ancestry.com aggregates death indexes, obituaries, and genealogical records used to date individual births and deaths (for example to build executive mortality panels). It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Audit Analytics: auditor, disclosure, and restatement data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/audit-analytics.md): Audit Analytics is the standard database of audit- and disclosure-related corporate events drawn from SEC filings: auditor identity and fees, auditor changes, internal-control opinions, financial-statement restatements, late filings, and litigation. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Bloomberg: terminal market data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/bloomberg.md): Bloomberg (Bloomberg L.P.) is a market-data terminal and data-feed service covering spot and forward FX, money-market and OIS rates, futures, government and corporate bond yields, inflation swaps, equities, and derived analytics, retrieved by Bloomberg ticker and field. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/blue-chip-forecasts.md): Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (Wolters Kluwer) is a monthly survey of professional forecasters' interest-rate and macro projections, widely used to measure forecast consensus and dispersion. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Bureau van Dijk Zephyr: M&A and deals (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/bureau-van-dijk-zephyr.md): Bureau van Dijk Zephyr (Moody's) is a global database of M&A, IPO, private-equity, and venture deals, linkable to the Orbis firm universe. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [S&P Capital IQ: company, capital-structure, and transactions data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/capital-iq.md): S&P Capital IQ is S&P Global Market Intelligence's platform covering public and private companies worldwide: detailed capital-structure and debt data, company financials, people, M&A and private-equity transactions, and key developments. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Cboe options and volatility data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/cboe-options.md): Cboe Global Markets options and volatility data: index and equity option quotes and trades, the VIX and related volatility indices, and historical files via Cboe DataShop. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Cerved: Italian company financials (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/cerved.md): Cerved (Cerved Group) provides balance-sheet, income-statement, and credit information for Italian incorporated companies, including private firms. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Clarity Services: alternative-credit bureau (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/clarity-services.md): Clarity Services (an Experian company) is a specialty credit bureau for subprime and alternative credit: payday, installment, and other nonprime loan records. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Compustat Global: non-US company fundamentals (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/compustat-global.md): Compustat Global is S&P Global Market Intelligence's database of fundamental and market data for publicly traded companies outside North America, standardized into a common data model for cross-country comparison. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Compustat Segments: business- and geographic-segment financials (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/compustat-segments.md): Compustat Segment data reports financials below the consolidated firm level, by line of business and by geography, as disclosed under segment-reporting accounting standards. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Consensus Economics forecast surveys (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/consensus-economics.md): Consensus Economics surveys a panel of professional forecasters for cross-country macro and exchange-rate projections at several horizons. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [CoreLogic: property and housing microdata (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/corelogic.md): CoreLogic (Cotality) is a US property database: deed transactions, tax and assessor records, repeat-sales house-price indices, and foreclosure data at the property and zip-code level. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [CoStar: commercial real estate transactions (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/costar.md): CoStar (CoStar Group) is a commercial-real-estate database: property-level records of completed sales, listings, leases, assessments, and physical/location characteristics across US markets. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Crane Data: money market fund holdings and assets (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/crane-mmf.md): Crane Data LLC is a money-market-fund (MMF) data service covering monthly fund-level total net assets, yields, and portfolio holdings (instrument type, issuer, maturity) for US money-market funds. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [CRSP Mutual Funds + Thomson holdings: the survivor-bias-free fund panel (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/crsp-mutual-funds.md): The CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free Mutual Fund Database (returns, TNA, fees, CRSP holdings) and the Thomson Reuters Mutual Fund Holdings (s12), linked by MFLINKS, are the standard US open-end mutual-fund panel. Licensed via WRDS: this page documents the access path and the gotchas; the path was exercised through a licensed WRDS session.
- [Crunchbase: startup and funding data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/crunchbase.md): Crunchbase is a commercial database of startups, funding rounds, investors, and company characteristics. A limited free tier exists, but research-grade bulk access is licensed. This page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [CSMAR: China Stock Market & Accounting Research (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/csmar.md): CSMAR is the standard vendor database of Chinese listed-firm prices, financials, ownership, and market microstructure. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Refinitiv Datastream: global time-series of prices and macro series (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/datastream.md): Datastream is Refinitiv's (LSEG) historical financial time-series database covering equities, bonds, commodities, indices, exchange rates, interest rates, options/futures, and a large library of macroeconomic series across many countries. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [LPC DealScan: syndicated-loan data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/dealscan.md): DealScan (LSEG / LPC) is a deal-level database of syndicated and large corporate loans: facility pricing, amounts, maturities, covenants, and lender shares, reached by most researchers through WRDS. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas; the access path was exercised through a licensed WRDS session.
- [Lipper eMAXX fixed-income holdings (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/emaxx.md): Lipper eMAXX (LSEG / Refinitiv) is the standard CUSIP-level database of fixed-income holdings for insurers, mutual funds, ETFs, and annuities. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Equifax traditional credit-bureau data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/equifax.md): Equifax traditional consumer credit-bureau records (installment and revolving balances, limits, credit scores) obtained under a commercial research licence. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Eurodollar futures intraday prices (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/eurodollar-futures.md): Intraday (tick) Eurodollar futures prices from CME Group, the standard instrument for high-frequency monetary-policy-surprise identification around FOMC announcements. Daily settlements are public; the intraday windows are licensed. This page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [FactSet LionShares: institutional ownership (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/factset-lionshares.md): FactSet LionShares (FactSet Ownership) is a commercial source for global institutional and fund holdings, with institution classification. It is a paid subscription: this page documents the access path and the gotchas that bite ownership pipelines, but the data was not exercised here.
- [FactSet Revere: supply-chain relationships (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/factset-revere.md): FactSet Revere is FactSet's database of inter-firm business relationships (supplier, customer, competitor, partner) compiled from company filings, presentations, and disclosures. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [FTSE All-Share index constituents and returns (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/ftse-all-share.md): FTSE All-Share (FTSE Russell) is the standard investable-universe index for UK equities: membership, market capitalisation, and returns. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Getty Images executive photographs (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/gettyimages-ceo-photos.md): Getty Images licenses dated press photographs of executives, the raw material for machine-learning apparent-age and facial measures of CEOs. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Global Financial Data (GFD): long-run cross-country series (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/global-financial-data.md): Global Financial Data is a commercial vendor of long-run historical stock, bond, commodity, and macroeconomic series spanning many countries and centuries. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [I/B/E/S: analyst estimates and actuals (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/ibes.md): I/B/E/S is the standard panel of sell-side analyst forecasts (EPS and other measures), consensus summaries, and matched "street" actuals, reached by most researchers through WRDS. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas; the access path was exercised through a licensed WRDS session.
- [InfoUSA / Data Axle business and consumer files (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/infousa.md): Data Axle (formerly InfoUSA) compiles business and consumer reference files: establishment listings with location, industry, and employment, plus consumer household files. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [KLD / MSCI ESG ratings (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/kld.md): Firm-level environmental, social, and governance ratings: the historical KLD STATS strength/concern indicators and the successor MSCI ESG (KLD STATS and IVA) ratings, commonly reached through WRDS. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [LexisNexis court records (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/lexisnexis-court.md): LexisNexis aggregates U.S. court filings and public records (civil lawsuits, judgments, dockets), the raw material for hand-collected litigation datasets. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [IHS Markit CDS: single-name credit default swap spreads (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/markit-cds.md): Markit CDS (IHS Markit, now S&P Global Market Intelligence) provides daily composite single-name and index credit-default-swap spreads contributed by dealers, across maturities, currencies, seniority, and restructuring clauses. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Markit quanto and cross-currency quotes (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/markit-quanto.md): Markit quanto (cross-currency) derivative quotes from S&P Global (IHS Markit), used to extract the quanto-implied covariance between exchange rates and equity returns. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Markit Securities Finance: securities-lending data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/markit-securities-finance.md): Markit Securities Finance (S&P Global / IHS Markit) is the standard securities-lending dataset: stock borrow fees, utilization, and lendable supply from a broad contributor base. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [IHS Markit bond pricing: composite quotes for corporate bonds (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/markit.md): The Markit Bond Pricing Database (IHS Markit / S&P Global) provides daily evaluated composite price quotes for individual corporate and other bonds, aggregated from contributing dealers, together with the dealer-count per bond. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Moody's Ultimate Recovery Database (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/moodys-urd.md): Moody's Ultimate Recovery Database (URD) records firm- and instrument-level creditor recovery rates at the resolution of U.S. corporate defaults. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Morningstar fund and sustainability data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/morningstar.md): Morningstar mutual-fund and ETF data: returns, holdings, categories, star ratings, and the Sustainability Rating (globes) and carbon metrics, reached through Morningstar Direct or a data licence. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [MSCI Real Estate (IPD): property indices and yields (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/msci-real-estate.md): MSCI Real Estate (formerly IPD) provides property total-return indices and rental-yield benchmarks across countries and sectors, built from appraised institutional portfolios. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [NETS: National Establishment Time Series (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/nets.md): NETS (Walls & Associates, from Dun & Bradstreet source data) is an establishment-level panel tracking US establishments annually from the early 1990s: location, industry, employment, sales, and ownership links. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [NielsenIQ retail scanner and consumer panel (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/nielseniq.md): NielsenIQ retail scanner and Homescan consumer-panel data, distributed for academic research through the Kilts Center at Chicago Booth. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [New York Times article archive (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/nyt-news.md): The full-text New York Times archive (back to 1851) is a long, consistent news corpus used for text-as-data measures of sentiment, attention, and discourse. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Optimal Blue mortgage rate-lock data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/optimal-blue.md): Optimal Blue captures mortgage rate-lock agreements and real-time lender offer distributions from its pricing-engine platform, a near-real-time view of locked rates and the offers borrowers could have gotten. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [OptionMetrics IvyDB: option prices, implied vols, and Greeks (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/optionmetrics.md): OptionMetrics IvyDB is the standard database of end-of-day option prices, OptionMetrics-computed implied volatilities and Greeks, and the standardized volatility surface for US exchange-listed equity and index options from 1996. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Orbis (Bureau van Dijk): global firm financials and ownership (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/orbis-bvd.md): Orbis (Bureau van Dijk / Moody's Analytics) is a global firm-level database covering financial statements, ownership and corporate-structure links, and firm identifiers for public and private companies across countries. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [PitchBook: private-capital and deal data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/pitchbook.md): PitchBook (Morningstar) is a deal-level database of venture capital, private equity, and M&A: startups and their funding rounds, investors, valuations, and exits. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Preqin: private-capital and hedge-fund data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/preqin.md): Preqin is a fund-level database of private capital (private equity, venture, private debt, real assets) and hedge funds: fund sizes, vintages, returns, cash flows, and limited-partner commitments. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [RateWatch deposit-rate surveys (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/ratewatch.md): RateWatch (S&P Global Market Intelligence) is the standard branch-level survey of U.S. deposit and CD rates, posted-rate data at weekly frequency. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [RavenPack: news and event analytics (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/ravenpack.md): RavenPack turns text news into structured, timestamped entity-event records with sentiment, relevance, and novelty scores. It is a paid subscription: this page documents the access path and the gotchas that bite event-study pipelines, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Refinitiv (LSEG) earnings-call transcripts (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/refinitiv-transcripts.md): Refinitiv (now LSEG) distributes transcripts of analyst-management conference calls, a standard corpus for textual analysis of disclosure. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [RepRisk: ESG risk-incident data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/reprisk.md): RepRisk is a daily firm-level feed of negative environmental, social, and governance incidents sourced from media and stakeholder reports, scored for severity, reach, and novelty across 28 issue categories. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas; the access path was exercised through a licensed WRDS session.
- [Revelio Labs: workforce and human-capital data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/revelio.md): Revelio Labs builds a firm-level workforce panel from public professional profiles and job postings: headcount, hiring and attrition, role and seniority mix, and education. It is a paid subscription: this page documents the access path and the gotchas; the access path was exercised through a licensed WRDS session on 2026-06-09.
- [Rystad Energy database (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/rystad.md): Rystad Energy maintains asset-level oil and gas data: production, costs, reserves, and field economics for operators worldwide. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [SDC Platinum: M&A and new-issues deal data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/sdc-platinum.md): SDC Platinum is the standard deal-level database of mergers and acquisitions and new security issues (IPOs, SEOs, debt), assembled by LSEG / Refinitiv. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Siblis Research index-constituent data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/siblis-research.md): Siblis Research sells historical index addition and deletion dates and constituent market values for the S&P 500, MidCap 400, SmallCap 600, and Nasdaq 100. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [SteelBenchmarker steel price index (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/steelbenchmarker.md): SteelBenchmarker publishes biweekly reference prices for hot-rolled band, cold-rolled coil, scrap, and other steel products. Current spot reports are free, but the full historical product-level series is a subscription product. This page documents the access path and the gotchas; the series was not exercised here.
- [StockTwits social-media messages (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/stocktwits.md): StockTwits is a finance-focused social platform whose ticker-tagged messages, often self-labeled bullish or bearish, are used as a retail-sentiment signal. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [NYSE TAQ: trade and quote microstructure data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/taq.md): NYSE TAQ (Trade and Quote) is a tick-level database of intraday trades and quotes for all US-listed equities on the consolidated tape, covering two lineages: Monthly TAQ (1993 onward) and Daily TAQ (millisecond to nanosecond stamps, 2003/2014+), reached by most academics through WRDS. It is licensed: the access path was exercised through a licensed WRDS session.
- [Thomson Reuters institutional (13F) holdings: the s34 database (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/thomson-13f.md): The Thomson Reuters / Refinitiv (now LSEG) Institutional (13F) Holdings database, known by its WRDS table family "s34", is a manager-by-quarter panel of US institutional equity holdings built from SEC Form 13F filings. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas; the access path was exercised through a licensed WRDS session.
- [Titlon Oslo Stock Exchange data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/titlon-ose.md): Titlon is the University of Tromso's financial database for the Oslo Stock Exchange: prices, returns, shares outstanding, and accounting data for Nordic listed firms. It is free to Nordic academic users but credential-gated, not openly public; this page documents the access path and the gotchas, and the data was not exercised here.
- [FINRA TRACE: corporate bond transactions (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/trace.md): TRACE (Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine) is FINRA's facility for secondary-market transaction reporting in US fixed-income securities, primarily corporate bonds. The version used by most academic researchers is the historical Enhanced TRACE file, reached for most researchers through WRDS. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, and the keystone query was exercised through a licensed WRDS session.
- [Trucost: firm-level environmental and carbon data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/trucost.md): Trucost (S&P Global) is a firm-level environmental panel: scope 1, 2, and 3 greenhouse-gas emissions, intensities, and other environmental metrics, with much of it modeled rather than disclosed. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [VentureSource venture-capital data (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/venturesource.md): VentureSource (Dow Jones / CB Insights) tracks venture-capital funds, financing rounds, valuations, and startup locations. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [Refinitiv Worldscope: global company fundamentals (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/worldscope.md): Worldscope is Refinitiv (LSEG) global database of standardized company fundamentals (balance sheet, income statement, cash flow, ratios, per-share data) and descriptive information for public companies across many countries. It is licensed: this page documents the access path and the gotchas, but the data was not exercised here.
- [WRDS / CRSP / Compustat: the paywalled core (academic access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/wrds.md): WRDS (CRSP, Compustat, IBES, OptionMetrics…) is not free, but most universities license it. How affiliated researchers get access, and what the free sources here can and cannot substitute for it.
- [ZTRAX: Zillow Transaction and Assessment Dataset (licensed)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/commercial/ztrax.md): ZTRAX was Zillow's national property-level dataset of deed transactions and assessor records, distributed free to academics under a data-use agreement until the program was discontinued in 2023. This page documents the access path and the gotchas; the data was not exercised here.
- [401(k) plan administrative records (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/401k-admin.md): Plan-administration microdata from a large U.S. retirement-plan recordkeeper: participant portfolio allocations, participation, contribution rates, and plan defaults across many plans. It is confidential single-counterparty data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Italian Credit Register (Centrale dei Rischi, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/bank-of-italy-credit-register.md): The Centrale dei Rischi is the Bank of Italy's confidential credit register: firm-bank loan quantities and interest rates above a reporting threshold, alongside the Or.So. bank-board register and supervisory balance-sheet reports. It is confidential supervisory data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [German bank proprietary customer data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/bank-proprietary.md): Individual-level customer records (product holdings, wealth, income, equity participation) from one anonymous German bank, used in household-finance research. It is confidential single-counterparty data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Banorte bank-account panel and savings experiment (Mexico, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/banorte-experiment.md): Individual-level account and transaction records for millions of customers of one Mexican bank (Banorte), plus a randomized savings field experiment run with the bank. It is confidential single-counterparty data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Bilendi commissioned online survey (Germany, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/bilendi-survey.md): An author-commissioned representative online survey of Germans, fielded through the panel provider Bilendi, with individual-level responses on attitudes and financial behavior. It is a bespoke confidential collection, not an off-the-shelf product. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [China shadow-margin lending data (single provider, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/china-shadow-margin.md): Daily stock-level off-exchange ("shadow") margin balances from one large Chinese lending platform, used to study the 2015 boom and bust. It is confidential single-counterparty data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Federal Reserve discount window lending (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/discount-window-confidential.md): Loan-level records of Federal Reserve discount window borrowing (primary credit and related facilities). Contemporaneous borrower-level data is confidential; transaction details are released only with a statutory lag. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [DTCC commercial paper transaction data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/dtcc.md): Transaction-level commercial paper issuance records (issuer, volume, rate, maturity) from DTCC, used in money-market and bank-funding research. It is confidential, not an off-the-shelf feed. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Equifax consumer-credit records (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/equifax-credit.md): Individual-level consumer credit microdata from Equifax (balances, delinquency, scores, account types), often reached as an anonymized matched panel, plus Equifax payroll-based employment and income verification. It is restricted PII, not an off-the-shelf purchase. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [FDIC construction-loan servicing records (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fdic-construction-loans.md): Loan-level construction-loan servicing data for a single failed bank held by the FDIC: terms, draw requests, on-site inspection reports, and outcomes. It is confidential FDIC data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [FDIC failed-bank bidding and resolution records (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fdic-failed-bank.md): Bid-level records from FDIC bank-failure resolutions: bidder identities, bid terms, the FDIC's least-cost estimates, and loss-share claims. It is confidential FDIC data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [FDIC confidential supervisory and account-level deposit data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fdic-supervisory.md): Confidential FDIC microdata: account-level deposit balances and transactions for a failed bank, plus supervisory enforcement actions and brokered-deposit waivers. It is confidential supervisory data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Confidential federal funds transaction data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fed-funds-confidential.md): Confidential, transaction-level federal funds borrowing and lending records held by the Federal Reserve, beyond what published benchmark rates reveal. It is restricted supervisory data: this page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here and is not publicly accessible.
- [Fedwire Funds Service: payment-level transaction data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fedwire.md): Fedwire transaction data is the Federal Reserve's confidential record of real-time gross-settlement interbank payments: sender, receiver, value, and timestamp. It is restricted supervisory data: this page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here and is not publicly accessible.
- [FEK: Swedish Structural Business Statistics (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fek-sweden.md): FEK is Statistics Sweden's firm-level structural business statistics: employment, payroll, productivity, and balance-sheet items for Swedish firms. It is restricted administrative microdata accessed in SCB's secure environment. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [FHA single-family mortgage data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fha.md): HUD publishes public aggregate data on FHA-insured single-family mortgages, but the loan-level origination-and-performance microdata used in default research is restricted administrative data. This page documents both and the gotchas; the restricted file was not exercised here.
- [FICC GCF Repo Service data (dealer-level, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/ficc-gcf-repo.md): Dealer-level daily interdealer general-collateral repo and reverse-repo activity by asset class from the FICC GCF Repo Service, licensed through the New York Fed. It is confidential. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [FR 2052a: Complex Institution Liquidity Monitoring Report (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fr-2052a.md): FR 2052a is the Federal Reserve's confidential liquidity-monitoring collection from large banking organizations: daily and monthly cash inflows and outflows by counterparty, product, and maturity. It is confidential supervisory data: this page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here and is not publicly accessible.
- [FR Y-14Q: confidential bank supervisory data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fr-y14q.md): FR Y-14Q is the Federal Reserve's quarterly stress-test data collection from large bank holding companies: loan-level corporate (H.1) and commercial real estate (H.2) records and more. It is confidential supervisory data: this page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here and is not publicly accessible.
- [FR 2004C: weekly primary-dealer positions (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fr2004c.md): FR 2004C is the dealer-level detail behind the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's weekly primary-dealer statistics: positions, transactions, and financing in government and other securities. Only aggregates are published; the dealer-level data is confidential. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [FR 2420: Report of Selected Money Market Rates (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fr2420.md): FR 2420 is the Federal Reserve's confidential transaction-level collection of money-market rates: federal funds, Eurodollars, and certificates of deposit from banks and FBOs. It underlies published benchmarks but the transaction data is confidential. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [FR 2644: Weekly Report of Selected Assets and Liabilities (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/fr2644.md): FR 2644 is the Federal Reserve's confidential weekly bank balance-sheet collection from a sample of domestic banks and FBO branches. It underlies the published H.8 aggregates but the bank-level data is confidential. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [IAB Establishment Panel (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/iab-establishment-panel.md): The IAB Establishment Panel is an annual representative survey of German establishments covering employment, wages, investment, and business practices. It is restricted microdata accessed through the IAB Research Data Centre. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [IEB: German Integrated Employment Biographies (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/ieb-germany.md): The Integrated Employment Biographies (IEB) are the German Institute for Employment Research's administrative day-level employment records for the universe of workers covered by social security. They are restricted microdata accessed through the IAB Research Data Centre. This page documents what they are and the gotchas, but they were not exercised here.
- [Indifi FinTech loan application records (India, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/indifi-loan-applications.md): Loan-level application records from one Indian FinTech lender (Indifi): applications with payment-transaction history, applicant characteristics, credit-bureau data, and outcomes. It is confidential single-counterparty data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [INSEE DADS: French matched employer-employee data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/insee-dads.md): DADS is the French administrative matched employer-employee dataset: annual social declarations linking workers to establishments, with earnings, occupation, and hours. It is restricted administrative microdata reached through the CASD secure data centre. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [INSEE LIFI: French inter-firm ownership links (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/insee-lifi.md): LIFI is INSEE's administrative determination of business-group structure in France: which firms control which, used to assemble corporate groups from ownership links. It is restricted administrative microdata reached through the CASD secure data centre. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [INSEE firm tax and accounting files (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/insee-tax-files.md): The French firm tax and accounting files (the BIC/FICUS-FARE lineage) are administrative firm-level balance sheets and income statements compiled by INSEE from DGFiP tax filings. They are restricted administrative microdata reached through the CASD secure data centre. This page documents what they are and the gotchas, but they were not exercised here.
- [LISA: Swedish longitudinal population register (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/lisa-sweden.md): LISA is Statistics Sweden's individual-level longitudinal register covering the entire resident population: annual labor-market, income, transfer, education, and family records, with the Wealth Register accessed under the same terms. It is restricted administrative microdata. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [NMLS Mortgage Call Report (company-level, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/mcr-nmls.md): The NMLS Mortgage Call Report collects loan-origination and financial-condition data from state-licensed mortgage companies. Aggregate statistics are published; the company-level data used in research is restricted. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [NIC supervisory data: CAMELS ratings and BHC structure (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/nic-fed.md): The Federal Reserve's National Information Center holds confidential CAMELS supervisory ratings alongside public bank holding company structure and ownership history. The ratings are confidential; the structure data is public. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but the ratings were not exercised here.
- [German online broker retail investor data (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/online-broker.md): Individual-level holdings, trades, and returns for retail investors at one anonymous German online broker, used in household-finance research. It is confidential single-counterparty data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [OSFI federally regulated lender data (Canada, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/osfi-canada.md): Contract-level mortgage records for federally regulated Canadian lenders, collected by OSFI and reached through the Bank of Canada: lender identity, loan size, rate, amortization, LTV, and debt-service ratio. It is restricted supervisory data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [SLI private meeting notes and fund records (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/sli-private-meetings.md): Internal records of one asset manager (Standard Life Investments / abrdn): private-meeting notes, analyst ratings and recommendations, fund holdings, and daily trades. It is confidential single-counterparty data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Spain CIR: Central de Informacion de Riesgos credit register (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/spain-cir.md): The CIR is the Banco de Espana's confidential loan-level credit register covering corporate loans by Spanish banks, with bank supervisory data matched to it. It is confidential supervisory data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Statistics Norway administrative registers (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/statistics-norway.md): Statistics Norway (SSB) maintains linked individual- and firm-level administrative registers: demographics, income, wealth, and balance sheets from tax records. Aggregate tables are public; the linked microdata is restricted. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but the microdata was not exercised here.
- [STBL: Survey of Terms of Business Lending (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/stbl-fed.md): The Federal Reserve's Survey of Terms of Business Lending collected loan-level commercial-and-industrial loan terms and internal risk ratings from reporting banks. Aggregates were published (E.2); the loan-level data is confidential. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [TransUnion credit bureau data (Canada, restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/transunion-canada.md): Monthly, population-wide individual credit-bureau records for Canada from TransUnion: borrower characteristics, mortgage identity, switching activity, and inquiries. It is restricted research microdata, not an off-the-shelf purchase. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [Technology service provider user list (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/tsp-user-list.md): A confidential list identifying which banks used a third-party technology service provider that was the target of a cyberattack, used as a treatment indicator. It is confidential single-source data. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [VPS: Norwegian securities depository holdings (restricted access)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/confidential/vps-norway.md): VPS is the Norwegian central securities depository; its records give complete individual-level securities holdings for Norwegian investors. It is restricted research microdata. This page documents what it is and the gotchas, but it was not exercised here.
- [American Community Survey (ACS)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/acs.md): How to pull American Community Survey estimates from the Census Bureau API (free key) or the no-key bulk files, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (1-year vs 5-year, every estimate has a margin of error, table-code churn, geographies are vintaged, it is a sample not a count).
- [Amsterdam historical housing prices and rents](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/amsterdam-housing-transactions.md): How to pull the long-run Amsterdam house-price and rent series compiled by Eichholtz, Korevaar, Francke and co-authors as no-login Excel files, plus the gotchas (the compiled panels are separate from the raw City Archives, the hosting is personal Google Drive with link rot, and several distinct series must not be spliced).
- [Barro-Ursua macroeconomic database](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/barro-ursua.md): The Barro-Ursua database is a long-run cross-country panel of annual real per-capita GDP and consumption, assembled to study macroeconomic disasters. It is a free academic dataset; the canonical host blocked automated fetches from this session, so the download was not exercised here.
- [BEA Input-Output Accounts](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/bea-io.md): How to pull the BEA Input-Output Accounts (Use, Make/Supply, and Requirements tables) for free with a registered API key, the table IDs you actually need to build upstreamness and production-network measures, and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [BIS Effective Exchange Rate Indices (EER)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/bis-rer.md): How to pull the BIS nominal and real effective exchange rate indices from the no-key BIS statistics API, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (real vs nominal, narrow vs broad basket, an up-move means appreciation, the index is rebased not a level).
- [Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/bls.md): How to pull BLS labor-force, employment, wage, and price series from the public data API with no key, plus the QCEW county wage files, and the series-ID and revision gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [FFIEC Call Reports: US bank condition and income filings](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/call-reports.md): How to pull US bank Call Report data for free: the FDIC financials JSON API (with the host move and amounts-in-thousands trap), the FFIEC bulk schedules, the CERT/RSSD identifiers, the RCFD-vs-RCON codes, and the YTD-income trap.
- [U.S. Census Bureau public data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/census.md): How to pull U.S. Census Bureau public data products (BDS, QWI, ACS, CBP, population estimates) for free, covering the bulk no-key flat-file path and the api.census.gov API, with the gotchas that bite automated pipelines.
- [CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/cftc-cot.md): How to pull weekly aggregate futures positions by trader category from the CFTC, including the Traders in Financial Futures report, the no-key history-file download, and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [CMS Hospital Quality & Patient-Outcome Metrics (Care Compare)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/cms-quality.md): How to pull CMS hospital quality measures (mortality, readmissions, complications, HCAHPS patient satisfaction) from the no-key Provider Data Catalog API, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (risk-adjusted not raw, suppressed small cells, measures and vintages change, footnote codes).
- [CRA disclosure data (FFIEC)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/cra-ffiec.md): How the FFIEC Community Reinvestment Act small-business, small-farm, and community-development lending files are structured, plus why a pipeline cannot fetch them no-key (the FFIEC host returns a Cloudflare challenge to automated requests), the fixed-width record-type layouts, and the disclosure vs aggregate vs transmittal split.
- [Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/dartmouth-atlas.md): How to pull the Dartmouth Atlas ZIP-to-HSA-to-HRR geographic crosswalk and regional health-care utilization measures from the no-key data downloads, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (HSA/HRR are care markets not Census geographies, the crosswalk vintage matters, utilization is age-sex-adjusted).
- [DFA: Distributional Financial Accounts (Federal Reserve)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/dfa.md): How to download the Federal Reserve Board's Distributional Financial Accounts, which give quarterly estimates of US household wealth distribution by wealth percentile, generation, education, and race, reconciled to Z.1 aggregates, with no key required.
- [ECB Data Portal (Statistical Data Warehouse)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/ecb-data-warehouse.md): How to pull euro-area macro, monetary, and Eurosystem balance-sheet series from the ECB, including the no-key data-api CSV endpoint, series-key structure, and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [SEC EDGAR: filings, financials, full-text search](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/edgar.md): How to pull SEC filings, XBRL financial facts, insider trades, and institutional holdings from EDGAR for free: the User-Agent trap, the 10 req/s limit, and XBRL-vs-text, for automated pipelines.
- [EIA Electricity Data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/eia-electricity.md): How to pull US Energy Information Administration electricity data (retail sales and prices, generation by fuel, plant-level operations, CO2 emission factors) from the EIA API v2 with a free key, plus the bracket-encoding, row-limit, and facet gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [EPA Toxics Release Inventory (TRI)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/epa-tri.md): Facility-by-chemical annual reports of toxic chemical releases and waste management from the U.S. EPA, with the no-key bulk CSV and Envirofacts REST recipes and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [Facebook Social Connectedness Index (SCI)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/facebook-sci.md): How to pull Meta's Social Connectedness Index (SCI) as no-key bulk CSVs from the Humanitarian Data Exchange, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines (it is a rescaled relative measure not a count, symmetric with both directions stored, the diagonal dominates, and region codes differ by file).
- [Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac single-family loan-level data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/fannie-freddie.md): How the GSE single-family loan-level acquisition and performance datasets are structured and accessed, why a pipeline cannot pull them no-key (both are free but registration-gated behind a click-through), the acquisition vs performance split, the pipe-delimited vs CSV format difference, and the quarterly vintages.
- [FDIC Summary of Deposits (SOD)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/fdic-summary-of-deposits.md): How to pull branch-level deposit data from the FDIC Summary of Deposits for free, with no API key, including the headquarters-booking distortion and the other gotchas that bite branch-geography pipelines.
- [FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile & BankFind financials](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/fdic.md): How to read the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (aggregate quarterly bank condition and income) and pull the institution-level BankFind financials API behind it, with the no-key access recipe and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [Federal Register](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/federal-register.md): The daily journal of U.S. federal agency Rules, Proposed Rules, and Notices, with full text from 1994 via the federalregister.gov API. Covers the no-key access recipe and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [FHFA House Price Index (HPI)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/fhfa-hpi.md): How to pull the FHFA repeat-sales house price index from the no-key master CSV, the ZIP-code developmental indexes, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (purchase-only vs all-transactions, NSA vs SA, the ZIP files are annual).
- [Flexible data-mining strategies (Chen-Lopez-Lira-Zimmermann)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/flex-mining.md): How to get ~30,000 data-mined long-short strategies and the signal-theory classification for free: the gdown-for-Drive trap, the size trap, and start-from-the-small-file tip, for automated pipelines.
- [Flow of Funds: Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/flow-of-funds.md): How to pull the Federal Reserve's Z.1 Financial Accounts (sector balance sheets and flows for the whole US economy) for free with no key, how to read the per-table CSV package and series-code grammar, and the levels-vs-flows gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [Forbes executive compensation surveys](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/forbes-executive-compensation.md): The Forbes annual executive compensation surveys (roughly 1970-1992) are the pre-ExecuComp source of U.S. CEO pay. No maintained machine-readable file exists; researchers reconstruct figures from archived print issues or reuse compiled tables. The modern successor is Compustat ExecuComp (1992, licensed).
- [DOL Form 5500: ERISA pension & welfare plan filings](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/form-5500.md): How to pull DOL Form 5500 plan filings and schedules for free: the apex-redirect-hangs-urllib trap, the ACK_ID-not-EIN join key, and the "Latest is unstable" trap, for automated pipelines.
- [SEC Form ADV (via IAPD): investment-adviser registration](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/form-adv.md): How to pull investment-adviser registration data from the SEC for free via IAPD: the firm report, the search API, and the bulk structured feed, plus why Form ADV lives outside EDGAR and the gotchas that bite fund-classification pipelines.
- [FRED: Federal Reserve Economic Data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/fred.md): How to pull macro and financial time series from FRED for free, including the no-API-key fallback, the series you actually need for finance and macro calibration, and the gotchas that bite automated pipelines.
- [GSW: Gurkaynak-Sack-Wright Treasury yield curve](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/gsw-yields.md): How to pull the Federal Reserve staff's daily fitted US Treasury zero-coupon yield curve (Svensson model, 1961 to present) for free with no key, which mnemonic is which, and the header and compounding gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [Gyourko-Mayer-Sinai Superstar Cities database](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/gyourko-mayer-sinai.md): How to reach the Superstar Cities long-run MSA house-price database (Gyourko, Mayer & Sinai), plus the gotchas: the data sits behind a free openICPSR sign-in while only the AEA appendix PDF is open, it is decadal MSA panels in Stata format, and the public file ends at the published vintage.
- [HCRIS (Medicare Hospital Cost Reports, CMS)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/hcris.md): How to pull hospital cost-report data from CMS HCRIS, including the no-key bulk download, the flat-file worksheet layout, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (form versions, alpha/numeric files, fiscal-year boundaries).
- [HMDA: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act loan data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/hmda.md): How to pull HMDA mortgage application and origination records for free: the CFPB data-browser CSV and aggregations API, the 2018 schema break, the privacy-binned public file, the string-ranged DTI trap, and the action_taken and sentinel-code gotchas.
- [Health and Retirement Study (HRS)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/hrs.md): The HRS is a biennial U.S. panel of older households covering health, income, wealth, retirement, and expectations. It is free academic data behind a registration and data-use agreement; the portal blocked automated requests from this session, so the download was not exercised here.
- [IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/imf-ifs.md): How to pull cross-country macro and external-sector series from the IMF, including the no-key DataMapper API, the SDMX data portal, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (database moves, units, missing-period gaps).
- [IRS Form 990 (Nonprofit Returns)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/irs-form-990.md): How to pull IRS Form 990 nonprofit information returns free with no key via the e-file index on apps.irs.gov, including officer compensation, board composition, and organization financials, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [JST Macrohistory Database](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/jst-macrohistory.md): How to pull the Jorda-Schularick-Taylor long-run macro-financial panel (18 advanced economies, annual, 1870 onward) for free as a single spreadsheet, what the key series mean, and the subset-citation and crisis-dummy gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [Ken French Data Library: factors & test portfolios](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/ken-french.md): How to pull Fama-French factors, momentum, and sorted test portfolios for free: the percent-not-decimal trap, the header-rows trap, and the monthly/annual-in-one-file trap, for automated pipelines.
- [Florida-UCLA-LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database (BRD)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/lopucki-brd.md): Case-level records for large U.S. public-company bankruptcies (Chapter 11/7, assets >= $100 million in 1980 dollars) from 1980 through the December 2022 final update, distributed free via a research-use click-through agreement at lopucki.law.ufl.edu; the database is frozen and will not be updated further.
- [Maryland Judiciary Case Search](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/maryland-judiciary.md): Maryland's free public court record lookup, why automated access is prohibited (CAPTCHA added March 2022, HTTP 403 to bots), how bulk access via a Public Information Act request works, and the data-use restrictions on individual records.
- [Form N-MFP (Money Market Fund Holdings)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/n-mfp.md): How to pull SEC Form N-MFP monthly money market fund portfolio holdings free with no key via EDGAR full-text search and the Archives endpoint, plus the gotchas around schema versioning, multi-series filers, and the User-Agent requirement.
- [NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/nber-ces.md): Annual U.S. manufacturing industry panel (output, employment, capital, materials, price deflators, and TFP) from the NBER and the Census Bureau's Center for Economic Studies, with the no-key download recipe and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [NBER Business Cycle Dates](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/nber-cycles.md): How to pull the NBER U.S. business cycle peak and trough reference dates as JSON with no API key, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines (announcement lag, day-component conventions, committee judgment versus the GDP rule).
- [NBER Working Papers](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/nber-working-papers.md): How to pull NBER working paper metadata and full-text PDFs with no API key: the undocumented listing API, the predictable PDF path, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (copyright/redistribution, gated subset, undocumented API, displaydate strings, working-paper numbering).
- [NIPA: National Income and Product Accounts (BEA)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/nipa.md): How to pull the US National Income and Product Accounts (GDP and its components) from the BEA for free, the no-key static-file fallback as well as the API, and the units, revision, and table-vs-series gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [NMLS Consumer Access](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/nmls.md): NMLS Consumer Access is a free per-record lookup for licensed mortgage loan originators and companies, but the Terms of Use forbid bulk or automated copying and there is no free bulk feed. Paid NMLS B2B Access is the only legitimate programmatic path for panel data.
- [NOAA hurricane track data (HURDAT2 / NHC)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/noaa-hurricane.md): NOAA National Hurricane Center best-track tropical-cyclone data (HURDAT2): 6-hourly positions, winds, pressure, and landfalls, with the no-key text-file download recipe and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [NSMO: National Survey of Mortgage Originations](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/nsmo.md): How to access the NSMO public-use file from FHFA, covering borrower shopping behavior, mortgage knowledge, and satisfaction linked to administrative credit and servicing data, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines working with survey-weighted microdata.
- [Open Source Asset Pricing (Chen-Zimmermann)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/open-source-asset-pricing.md): How to pull 212 firm-level anomaly signals and pre-built long-short portfolio returns for free: the list-not-string trap, the 1.6 GB bulk trap, and the CRSP-merge-already-done point, for automated pipelines.
- [PACER: federal court records (incl. bankruptcy)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/pacer-bankruptcy.md): How PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records) works, what it costs ($0.10/page, $3.00/document cap, $30/quarter waiver), and why automated bulk retrieval is metered rather than free. Covers bankruptcy filings, case-level dockets, and how RECAP partially mirrors paid content.
- [Paris historical repeat-rent index](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/paris-rents.md): How to reach the long-run Paris rent series from Eichholtz, Korevaar and Lindenthal, plus the honest gotcha that only the 1809-1943 slice is publicly posted (in the shared RFS 2021 workbook), while the deep 1500-1831 repeat-rent index used in some studies remains working-paper-only.
- [Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/qwi-census.md): How to pull Census LEHD Quarterly Workforce Indicators local labor-market statistics free with no key via the LEHD bulk flat files, including the filename scheme, status-flag columns, and the suppression gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [SBA 7(a) and 504 loan data (FOIA)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/sba-loans.md): How to download and work with the U.S. Small Business Administration's loan-level FOIA datasets for the 7(a) and 504/CDC programs, including the CKAN portal, direct CSV access, and the gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [SCF: Survey of Consumer Finances](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/scf.md): How to pull the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances summary extract (US household wealth, debt, income, and portfolios) for free with no key, why the file has five rows per household, and the weighting and imputation gotchas that bite pipelines.
- [Robert Shiller online data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/shiller-data.md): How to pull Robert Shiller's long-run U.S. stock market (ie_data.xls, CAPE) and home price (Fig3-1.xls) files with no key, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines (the YYYY.MM decimal date, monthly-average prices, the provisional tail, and the changing download link).
- [SIPP (Survey of Income and Program Participation)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/sipp.md): How to pull SIPP public-use household income and employment microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau with no API key, including the schema JSON for variable definitions, the character-delimited CSV format, and the gotchas that bite longitudinal pipelines.
- [TNIC (Hoberg-Phillips text-based industries)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/tnic.md): How to pull the Hoberg-Phillips Text-based Network Industry Classifications (TNIC) firm-pair similarity data as no-key bulk files, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines (it is a firm-specific relational network, not a partition; gvkey identifiers; the score is an excess-over-threshold, not a raw cosine).
- [Uniswap on-chain data (Ethereum)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/uniswap-blockchain.md): Swap, Mint, and Burn event logs for Uniswap V2/V3 liquidity pools on Ethereum mainnet, pulled directly from the public blockchain via no-key JSON-RPC eth_getLogs; the key operational question is which public RPC endpoints actually serve getLogs on archive blocks without a token. Uniswap V1, used in early studies, has a different architecture and is noted here too.
- [EPA Supply Chain GHG Emission Factors](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/us-epa-supply-chain.md): How to pull the EPA's NAICS-level supply-chain greenhouse-gas emission factors from the no-key CSV, the with-margins vs without-margins distinction, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (NAICS vintage, USD year, version).
- [CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/vix.md): How to pull the full daily VIX history as a no-key CSV from Cboe, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines (the 1990-2002 backfill vs the original VXO, flat early OHLC, annualized-percentage units, and the family of look-alike vol indices).
- [Internet Archive Wayback Machine](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/wayback-machine.md): How to query the Internet Archive Wayback Machine for historical web-page snapshots from the no-key Availability and CDX APIs, and the gotchas that bite pipelines (coverage is not continuous, a snapshot is a crawl not the live page, rate limits, capture != content change).
- [Zillow research data](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/datasets/zillow.md): How to pull Zillow Research's free housing metrics (ZHVI, rents, days on market, price cuts) as no-key bulk CSVs, plus the gotchas that bite pipelines (wide format, the filename-is-the-metadata convention, restated history, and RegionID vs FIPS).
- [Distilled literature](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/index.md): Machine-readable distillations of research papers (core results, datasets used, theory tested) so you can see what a paper found without reading all of it.
- [The Reversal Interest Rate: Abadi, Brunnermeier & Koby (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/abadi-et-al-reversal-interest-rate-2023.md): Distilled: This paper theoretically characterizes the reversal interest rate, the policy rate below which further monetary easing becomes contractionary for bank lending. In a calibrated New Keynesian model with imperfectly competitive banks and net-worth constraints, the reversal rate is approximately -0.9 percent for aggregate investment and -1.4 percent for bank lending, calibrated to the euro area. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the model equations, and the calibration method.
- [Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK: Acharya, Challe & Dogra (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/acharya-et-al-optimal-monetary-policy-according-2023.md): Distilled: In an analytically tractable HANK model with idiosyncratic income risk, optimal monetary policy places roughly twice as much weight on output stabilization relative to inflation as in RANK (calibrated Upsilon = 1.76 vs 1), adds the level of output to the target criterion (calibrated delta = 0.6), and tolerates inflation to cushion output declines after aggregate shocks. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the CARA-normal HANK model, the LQ planning problem, and the HANK target criterion equations.
- [Leaving School VA on the Table: Ainsworth, Dehejia, Pop-Eleches & Urquiola (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/ainsworth-et-al-households-leave-school-value-2023.md): Distilled: Romanian households leave roughly one standard deviation of school value added unexploited when choosing high school tracks; both incomplete information and preferences for curricular focus and peer quality contribute, with preferences explaining 83 percent of the gap that would remain after full information correction. An information RCT raises value added by 0.12 SD for low-achieving students (out of 1 SD potential); a rank-ordered logit and counterfactual simulation decompose the residual. American Economic Review 2023, AEA open access. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [Mobility and Congestion in Urban India: Akbar, Couture, Duranton & Storeygard (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/akbar-et-al-mobility-congestion-urban-india-2023.md): Distilled: Develops city-level vehicular speed indices decomposable into uncongested speed and a congestion factor, applied to 57 million simulated Google Maps trips in 180 Indian cities. Uncongested speed explains 70 percent of cross-city speed variance; congestion explains only 13 percent, overturning the view that slow Indian cities are primarily congested. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the index methodology, and the empirical specifications.
- [Imperfect Financial Markets and Investment Inefficiencies: Albagli, Hellwig & Tsyvinski (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/albagli-et-al-imperfect-financial-markets-investment-2023.md): Distilled: noisy information aggregation in equity markets creates a rent-seeking motive for incumbent shareholders that causes overinvestment in upside risks and underinvestment in downside risks; in general equilibrium an externality through aggregate share prices dampens overinvestment but amplifies underinvestment. AER 2023, paywalled. Six core theoretical results with equation locators, the partial and general equilibrium models with full equations, and the information-feedback extension. LLM-distilled.
- [The Economic Origins of Government: Allen, Bertazzini & Heldring (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/allen-et-al-economic-origins-government-2023.md): River shifts in ancient southern Iraq (~2850BCE) caused new state formation, canal construction, tribute payment, and growth of administrative buildings, supporting cooperative over extractive theories of government origins, in a new archeological panel dataset spanning 3900BCE-2700BCE. American Economic Review 2023, open access. Eight core results with source locators, the identification strategy, and regression specifications; LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Birth of a Nation Media Effects: Ang (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/ang-birth-nation-media-racial-2023.md): Distilled: Ang (2023) provides the first causal evidence that D. W. Griffith's 1915 film The Birth of a Nation increased local lynchings and race riots by approximately fourfold, raised second-KKK klavern probability by 66 pp (2SLS), and predicts 85 percent higher hate crime rates per 100k residents a century later. American Economic Review 113(6), 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification design, and estimating equations.
- [Road to Efficiency: Avoyan & Ramos (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/avoyan-ramos-road-efficiency-communication-commitment-2023.md): Distilled: A laboratory experiment shows that a commitment-enhanced pre-play communication institution (asynchronous revision mechanism) achieves 82 percent efficiency in the minimum-effort coordination game, significantly outperforming cheap-talk communication (64 percent) and the no-communication baseline (48 percent); commitment, asynchronicity, and revision frequency are all necessary ingredients. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, the game-theoretic model, and the experimental design.
- [Dividend Taxes and Allocation of Capital (Comment): Bach et al. (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/bach-et-al-dividend-taxes-allocation-capital-2023.md): Distilled: This comment replicates Boissel and Matray (2022) using their own data and code, finding a coding alteration that suppresses differential pre-trends and showing that "size growth" controls are lagged outcome controls; no corrected specification produces convincing evidence that the 2013 French dividend tax increase raised corporate investment. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Three core results with source locators, datasets used, and the estimating equations.
- [Electronic Food Vouchers: Banerjee, Hanna, Olken, Satriawan & Sumarto (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/banerjee-et-al-electronic-food-vouchers-evidence-2023.md): Distilled: An at-scale RCT across 105 Indonesian districts (3.4 million households) shows that switching from in-kind rice distribution to electronic food vouchers delivered 46 percent more subsidy to targeted poor households and cut poverty by 20 percent for the bottom 15 percent, driven by improved administrative fidelity rather than price-theoretic mechanisms. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the administrative-fidelity bargaining model, and the estimating equation.
- [Information, Mobile Communication, and Referral Effects: Barwick, Liu, Patacchini & Wu (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/barwick-et-al-information-mobile-communication-referral-2023.md): Distilled: Using geocoded cellphone records from a Chinese telecom provider matched to administrative firm data, the paper provides the first direct evidence of increased communication between job seekers and their referrers around job changes (inverted U-shape peaking at the switch month), quantifies a referral effect of 0.35 on job location choice (nearly tripling the baseline probability), and shows referral jobs yield higher wages, shorter commutes, and faster firm growth. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and estimating equations.
- [Alternative Explanation for the Fed Information Effect: Bauer & Swanson (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/bauer-swanson-alternative-explanation-fed-information-2023.md): Distilled: Bauer and Swanson (2023) show that standard "Fed information effect" regressions suffer from omitted variable bias; once economic news controls are added, monetary policy surprise coefficients reverse sign to match standard macroeconomic theory. A "Fed response to news" channel, supported by their own forecaster survey and financial market evidence, explains the data without invoking Fed private information. American Economic Review 2023, AEA copyright. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (imperfect information about the policy rule), and the method (OLS with news controls, high-frequency event study).
- [Nobel Lecture, Banking and Credit: Bernanke (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/bernanke-nobel-lecture-banking-credit-2023.md): Distilled: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize lecture synthesizes his career research showing that informational frictions in credit markets interact with borrower and lender net worth to amplify and prolong economic contractions. The lecture documents that banking and credit disruptions were important sources of the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2007-2009, and introduces the financial accelerator mechanism through which credit conditions propagate business cycles. American Economic Review 2023, copyright The Nobel Foundation 2022, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the Appendix model (moral hazard and credit rationing, eqs. 1-9), and the financial accelerator channel.
- [Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness: Best, Hjort & Szakonyi (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/best-et-al-individuals-organizations-sources-state-2023.md): Distilled: Using 16 million Russian public procurement transactions (2011-2016), the paper measures that individual bureaucrats and organizations jointly explain 39 percent of the variation in quality-adjusted government procurement prices, with bureaucrats and organizations each accounting for roughly half. Bid preferences favoring domestic suppliers reduce prices when implemented by less effective bureaucrats but raise them when implemented by more effective ones. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets, the procurement model, and the variance decomposition method with defining equations.
- [Regulation Design in Insurance Markets: Bhaskar, McClellan & Sadler (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/bhaskar-et-al-regulation-design-insurance-markets-2023.md): Distilled: The paper models insurance regulation as a delegation problem and shows a regulator can implement the socially optimal allocation by requiring each firm menu to include at most two latent contracts that are never purchased in equilibrium but deter the firm from misusing its private signal about consumers. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the formal model, and the mechanism with equations.
- [When Losses Turn into Loans: Blattner, Farinha & Rebelo (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/blattner-et-al-losses-turn-loans-cost-2023.md): Distilled: Distressed banks respond to ratio-based capital shortfalls by reallocating credit toward borrowers whose loan losses they underreport, using the 2011 EBA capital exercise in Portugal as a natural experiment. The credit misallocation accounts for about 22 percent of Portugal's allocative-efficiency decline in 2012. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification design, and the defining equations.
- [Long and Short Run of Trade Elasticities: Boehm, Levchenko & Pandalai-Nayar (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/boehm-et-al-long-short-run-trade-2023.md): Distilled: using MFN tariff variation and local projections, this paper estimates the trade elasticity at every time horizon, finding -0.76 in the short run and approximately -2 in the long run, converging over 7-10 years. Long-run estimates are substantially smaller in absolute value than conventional wisdom, implying welfare gains from trade five to six times larger than standard estimates. AER 2023, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets, the dynamic model, and the MFN instrumental variable.
- [Technological Change and Job-Loss Consequences: Braxton & Taska (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/braxton-taska-technological-change-consequences-job-2023.md): Distilled: Using Burning Glass Technologies online vacancy data to measure within-occupation technological change, Braxton and Taska show that workers displaced from more tech-exposed occupations suffer earnings declines over 7 percentage points larger per standard deviation of exposure, are 17 pp more likely to switch occupations, and that a calibrated structural search-and-matching model attributes 45 percent of post-displacement earnings losses to technological change. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the simple two-period model and the quantitative model with Bellman equations, and the empirical specifications.
- [Behavioral Foundations of Default Effects: Brot-Goldberg, Layton, Vabson & Wang (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/brot-goldberg-et-al-behavioral-foundations-default-effects-2023.md): Distilled: Default rules in Medicare Part D have large, persistent effects on enrollment and drug utilization; beneficiary passivity is insensitive to the value of the default even when following it causes drug consumption losses up to 30 percent. Evidence favors "mental gap" over "frictional" models of default-following, implying that optimal policy should match beneficiaries to their best plans rather than incentivize active choice. AER 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical framework, and the empirical specifications.
- [Smart Contracts and the Coase Conjecture: Brzustowski, Georgiadis-Harris & Szentes (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/brzustowski-et-al-smart-contracts-coase-conjecture-2023.md): Distilled: A durable-good monopolist with access to general dynamic contracts (smart contracts) earns an equilibrium payoff strictly above the low buyer valuation for any discount factor, refuting the Coase conjecture. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Four core theoretical results with source locators, the formal model (incentive-compatible abiding contracts), and the two-lemma proof strategy.
- [A Signal to End Child Marriage: Buchmann, Field, Glennerster, Nazneen & Wang (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/buchmann-et-al-signal-end-child-marriage-2023.md): Distilled: A clustered RCT in rural Bangladesh showed a small conditional financial incentive (cooking oil, ~US$16/year) for adolescent girls to remain unmarried reduced underage marriage by 19 percent and increased schooling, while a traditional empowerment program had no marriage effect and raised dowry. A signaling model explains child marriage persistence as a pooling equilibrium driven by information asymmetry about bride type. American Economic Review 2023, free after 12-month AEA embargo. Seven core results with source locators, the signaling model, and the empirical specifications.
- [Second-Best Fairness: Cappelen, Cappelen & Tungodden (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/cappelen-et-al-second-best-fairness-trade-2023.md): Distilled: Large-scale experimental evidence from 26,500 spectators in the US and Norway on how people trade off false positives against false negatives in second-best fairness decisions. A majority are false negative averse across three economic environments, with substantial heterogeneity by country and political affiliation. American Economic Review 2023, AEA copyright. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical model, and the estimation strategy.
- [Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Carlino, Drautzburg, Inman & Zarra (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/carlino-et-al-partisanship-fiscal-policy-economic-2023.md): Distilled: Using a regression discontinuity design on close gubernatorial elections, the paper shows Republican governors spend 0.29 percentage points less (elasticity) per 1 percent increase in federal intergovernmental transfers than Democratic governors, instead reducing debt and cutting taxes with a two-year lag; a calibrated New Keynesian two-state monetary union model implies the IG transfer impact multiplier falls by 0.58 under equal partisan representation relative to an all-Democratic benchmark. American Economic Review 113(3), 2023, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the NK model equations, and the RDD specification; LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Occupational Exposure to Capital-Embodied Technical Change: Caunedo, Jaume & Keller (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/caunedo-et-al-occupational-exposure-capital-embodied-2023.md): Distilled: Using the first measures of capital-embodied technical change (CETC) at the occupational level, Caunedo, Jaume, and Keller show that CETC accounts for 95% of gross US labor reallocation between 1984 and 2015, with heterogeneous capital-labor substitutability (not the extent of CETC) as the key driver. American Economic Review 2023, AEA standard (free access). Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression: Chodorow-Reich, Karabarbounis & Kekre (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/chodorow-reich-et-al-macroeconomics-greek-depression-2023.md): Distilled: An estimated structural dynamic general equilibrium model decomposes Greece's 1998-2017 boom-bust cycle. Tax policy accounts for the largest fraction of the production bust (-18 of -34 model log-point decline), while uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk drives the bust in consumption and wages. Spending-based fiscal consolidation would have reduced the output bust by roughly 7 log points. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the model equations, and the Bayesian estimation approach. LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Nonlinear Pricing with Underutilization: Corrao, Flynn & Sastry (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/corrao-et-al-nonlinear-pricing-underutilization-theory-2023.md): Distilled: establishes that multi-part tariffs (price schedules with tiers of zero marginal price) are the optimal contract when buyers can freely underutilize purchases and usage generates revenue for the seller via advertising, data, or network effects. American Economic Review 113(3), 2023, paywalled. Six core theoretical results with proposition locators, the seller's problem, and the virtual surplus characterization. LLM-distilled.
- [Relinquishing Riches: Covert & Sweeney (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/covert-sweeney-relinquishing-riches-auctions-versus-2023.md): Distilled: Auctioned oil and gas leases in Texas generate 53 log points more in up-front bonus payments and 39 log points more output than informally negotiated leases, measured using a natural experiment from early-twentieth-century Texas land allocation decisions. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating equations.
- [Old Boys' Club: Cullen & Perez-Truglia (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/cullen-perez-truglia-old-boys-club-schmoozing-2023.md): Distilled: Face-to-face social interactions with managers give same-gendered employees a promotion advantage at a large anonymous commercial bank in Southeast Asia, with quasi-random manager rotations providing causal identification; the male-to-male advantage accounts for about 40 percent of the gender pay gap in promotions at this firm. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the event-study design, and the empirical specifications with equations. LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Subjective Performance Evaluation and Influence Activities: de Janvry et al. (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/de-janvry-et-al-subjective-performance-evaluation-influence-2023.md): A randomized field experiment among 3,785 Chinese civil servants shows that revealing the evaluator's identity induces evaluator-specific influence activities, creating a 0.311-point asymmetry in supervisor assessments (0.24 SD) that disappears under a masked scheme. Masking the evaluator's identity improves colleague assessments, supervisor assessments, and objective performance pay. American Economic Review vol. 113(3), 2023, paywalled. 8 core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method. LLM-distilled.
- [Evidence and Lessons on Health Impacts of Public Health Funding: Dillender (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/dillender-evidence-lessons-health-impacts-2023.md): Distilled: Exploiting staggered variation in Ryan White CARE Act Title I eligibility, this paper finds that federal HIV/AIDS funding to US cities reduced HIV/AIDS death rates by 15-17 percent, saved approximately 57,000 lives through 2018 at a cost of $334,000 per death avoided, and reduced HIV prevalence by 36-40 percent. American Economic Review 2023, open (AEA). Six core results with source locators, datasets used, identification strategy, and the estimating equations. LLM-distilled; not human-verified.
- [Persuasion through Slanted Language: Djourelova (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/djourelova-persuasion-slanted-language-evidence-2023.md): Distilled: Djourelova (2023) exploits the AP's April 2013 ban on the term "illegal immigrant" to show that slanted language diffuses from news wires to local media and causally lowers public support for restrictive immigration policies. American Economic Review 113(3), 2023, AEA open access. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, identification design, and estimating equations.
- [Optimal Policy under Dollar Pricing: Egorov & Mukhin (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/egorov-mukhin-optimal-policy-dollar-pricing-2023.md): Distilled: In a generalized sticky-price open economy model with dollar currency pricing, targeting domestic inflation is robustly optimal for non-US central banks, capital controls cannot improve welfare unilaterally, and US monetary policy deviates from domestic price stabilization to manipulate global demand. American Economic Review 113(7) 2023, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, model equations (open-economy DGE with DCP), and the planner Lagrangian method.
- [Confidence, Self-Selection, and Bias in the Aggregate: Enke, Graeber & Oprea (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/enke-et-al-confidence-self-selection-bias-2023.md): Distilled: Using 15 cognitive tasks and 2,153 participants in betting market, auction, and committee experiments, Enke, Graeber, and Oprea document that social institutions filter some biases strongly and others barely at all, with the cross-task variation explained almost entirely by the within-task confidence-performance correlation (r = 0.76 to 0.93). American Economic Review 2023, AEA copyright. Seven core results with source locators, the theoretical framework, the experimental design equations, and the datasets used.
- [Optimal Contracting with Altruistic Agents: Gaynor, Mehta & Richards-Shubik (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/gaynor-et-al-optimal-contracting-altruistic-agents-2023.md): Distilled: A structural screening model estimated on 2008-2009 Medicare EPO claims shows that optimal nonlinear payment contracts for dialysis providers eliminate all medically excessive dosages and reduce spending by 12-48%, for aggregate gains of roughly $300 million per year. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the model, the method (demand profile approach for supply contracting), and the empirical specifications with equations.
- [Optimal Insurance: Gershkov, Moldovanu, Strack & Zhang (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/gershkov-et-al-optimal-insurance-dual-utility-2023.md): Distilled: Characterizes profit-maximizing insurance menus under adverse selection with dual-utility (Yaari 1987) agents and random losses: optimal contracts are layer contracts where the retention slope is 0 or 1 almost everywhere, deductibles arise when private information concerns loss probability, and coverage limits when it concerns loss magnitude. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Seven core theoretical results with source locators, the model, and the solution method.
- [Voice of Monetary Policy: Gorodnichenko, Pham & Talavera (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/gorodnichenko-et-al-voice-monetary-policy-2023.md): Distilled: A deep learning model detects emotions in Fed chair voices during FOMC press conference Q&A sessions; a more positive voice tone raises S&P 500 returns by roughly 100 basis points over five days, reduces VIX, lowers inflation expectations, and appreciates the dollar against the euro, after controlling for policy actions and text sentiment. American Economic Review 113(2) 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the emotion-detection model, VoiceTone construction, and the local-projections specification. LLM-distilled, not human-verified, not reproduced.
- [Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments: Guntin, Ottonello & Perez (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/guntin-et-al-micro-anatomy-macro-consumption-2023.md): Distilled: Documents that consumption-income elasticities are near unity across all income groups during macro consumption crises (Euro crisis and emerging-market sudden stops), including among top-income and asset-rich households; a calibrated heterogeneous-agent model shows the permanent-income view explains the micro patterns while credit-tightening theories predict a cross-sectional pattern inconsistent with the data. American Economic Review 2023, AEA copyright (free-to-read after 12-month embargo). Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the empirical specifications.
- [Not Too Late: Guryan, Ludwig et al. (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/guryan-et-al-too-late-improving-academic-2023.md): Distilled: Two large-scale RCTs (n=5,343) of high-dosage tutoring with paraprofessional tutors in Chicago public high schools find math test score gains of 0.18 SD (Study 1) and 0.40 SD (Study 2), persisting at 0.23 SD one to two years later. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, the Lazear-based classroom model, and ITT/TOT regression specifications.
- [Too Much Benchmarking in Asset Management: Kashyap, Kovrijnykh, Li & Pavlova (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/kashyap-et-al-there-too-much-benchmarking-2023.md): Distilled: A tractable general equilibrium model shows that incentive contracts for fund managers create a pecuniary externality through equilibrium asset prices: benchmarking inflates the risky asset price, crowds trades, and reduces contract effectiveness for other investors, so the socially optimal contract has less skin in the game and less benchmarking than the privately optimal one. American Economic Review 2023, AEA copyright. Six core results with source locators, the model equations, and the method.
- [Banning Gendered Job Ads: Kuhn & Shen (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/kuhn-shen-what-happens-employers-can-2023.md): Distilled: When XMRC.com (a Chinese job board) removed explicit gender requests from all job ads overnight in March 2019, women's share of callbacks to previously male-requesting jobs rose by 61 percent and men's share of callbacks to previously female-requesting jobs rose by 146 percent. The ban generated a large increase in gender-mismatched applications that employers treated relatively well, suggesting gender requests often reflected weak preferences or outdated stereotypes. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, and the regression-discontinuity estimating equations. LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Law and Norms: Lane, Nosenzo & Sonderegger (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/lane-et-al-law-norms-empirical-evidence-2023.md): Distilled: Using incentivized vignette experiments and a legal-threshold identification strategy, Lane, Nosenzo, and Sonderegger show laws causally shape social norms, producing sharp discontinuities in perceived social appropriateness at legal thresholds across UK, US, and Chinese samples (n=7,000). American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the social-image model, and the estimating regressions.
- [Constrained-Efficient Capital Reallocation: Lanteri & Rampini (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/lanteri-rampini-constrained-efficient-capital-reallocation-2023.md): Distilled: In a heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model with collateral constraints, the competitive equilibrium price of used capital is inefficiently high because distributive pecuniary externalities dominate collateral externalities by a factor of roughly 2.3 quantitatively, providing a new rationale for new-investment subsidies. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the full theoretical model with equations, and calibrated quantitative welfare analysis.
- [Profits, Scale Economies, and Trade Gains: Lashkaripour & Lugovskyy (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/lashkaripour-lugovskyy-profits-scale-economies-gains-2023.md): Distilled: Second-best trade taxes are a poor substitute for Pigouvian industrial subsidies at correcting scale-economy misallocation, raising average real GDP by only 1.19 percent versus 3.05 percent under the first-best in a calibrated multi-country Krugman model. Unilateral corrective industrial policies trigger immiserizing growth (average -2.78 percent), while coordinated policies via a deep agreement deliver +3.42 percent gains. American Economic Review 113(10), 2023, paywalled. Five core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (generalized Krugman 1980 with nested CES preferences), and the estimation method (shift-share exchange rate IV on Colombian firm-level import data).
- [Trade with Correlation: Lind & Ramondo (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/lind-ramondo-trade-correlation-2023.md): Distilled: A Ricardian trade model where productivity across countries follows a max-stable multivariate Frechet distribution with a general correlation function, spanning the full class of GEV import demand systems. A latent factor model (LFM) estimated on four-digit SITC trade and tariff data finds 7 technology factors and wide heterogeneity in correlation: countries with more dissimilar technology gain up to 90% more from trade; LFM gains dispersion is an order of magnitude larger than sectoral gravity (SD 2.6 vs 0.07). American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the CNCES/GEV model equations, the LFM estimator, and datasets used.
- [Optimal Procurement with Quality Concerns: Lopomo, Persico & Villa (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/lopomo-et-al-optimal-procurement-quality-concerns-2023.md): Distilled: This paper derives the optimal procurement mechanism when low-cost suppliers are also low-quality (adverse selection), finding that a lowball lottery auction (LoLA) with a floor price and a reserve price maximizes any weighted average of buyer surplus and social surplus subject to incentive compatibility. Applied to Italian government procurement data, the buyer-optimal LoLA yields up to 15 percent higher buyer surplus than a first-price auction. American Economic Review 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the mechanism design model, and LoLA with its defining equations. LLM-distilled.
- [Worth Your Weight: Macchi (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/macchi-worth-weight-experimental-evidence-2023.md): Distilled: Two field experiments in Kampala, Uganda show that obesity functions as a wealth signal in low-income countries, raising credit access by an amount equivalent to a 60 percent increase in self-reported income, driven by statistical discrimination that weakens when financial information is provided. AER 2023, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the experimental designs, and the regression specifications.
- [Value of Working Conditions: Maestas et al. (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/maestas-et-al-value-working-conditions-united-2023.md): Distilled: Using a new nationally representative stated-preference survey (AWCS, 2015-16, N = 1,738 US workers), this paper estimates willingness to pay for nine nonwage job amenities; a switch from the worst to the best amenity bundle equals 55 percent of the wage. Accounting for amenity incidence and preference heterogeneity attenuates the gender wage gap by 24 percent, widens the race compensation gap by 27 percent, and increases the 90-10 wage inequality measure. American Economic Review 2023, AEA copyright. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, the indirect utility model, and the stated-preference logit estimation method with equations.
- [Political Economy of International Regulatory Cooperation: Maggi & Ossa (2023)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/aer/2023/maggi-ossa-political-economy-international-regulatory-2023.md): Distilled: cooperative agreements on product standards induce co-lobbying and lead to excessive deregulation when producer lobbies are strong, reducing welfare; agreements on process standards trigger counter-lobbying, tightening regulations and improving welfare when lobbies are powerful. American Economic Review 113(8) 2023, paywalled. Five core propositions with source locators, the lobbying-extended regulatory model, and the equilibrium characterization method.
- [Choices and Outcomes in Assignment Mechanisms: Agarwal, Hodgson & Somaini (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/agarwal-et-al-choices-outcomes-assignment-mechanisms-2025.md): Distilled: Using quasi-experimental variation in deceased donor kidney offers and a scarcity instrument, this paper identifies a joint model of patient acceptance decisions and survival outcomes, finding the kidney waitlist mechanism achieves an average LYFT of 9.29 years (1.75 years above random assignment) while the maximum possible is 14.08 years, exposing a planner's dilemma between efficiency and prioritizing the sickest. Econometrica 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the assignment-outcomes joint model, and the defining equations.
- [Location Sorting and Endogenous Amenities: Almagro & Dominguez-Iino (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/almagro-iino-location-sorting-endogenous-amenities-2025.md): Distilled: A dynamic spatial equilibrium model of Amsterdam shows that heterogeneous household preferences over endogenous consumption amenities increase residential sorting across neighborhoods but reduce welfare inequality, while short-term rental entry raises rents for all but redistributes welfare gains and losses across household types through the amenity channel. Econometrica 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Five core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method with its defining equations.
- [Competitive Capture of Public Opinion: Alonso & Padró i Miquel (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/alonso-miquel-competitive-capture-public-opinion-2025.md): Distilled: Two opposed interested parties compete to capture news coverage; rational citizens discount informative messages and sort into aligned sources, so competition compounds rather than cancels harm to social learning. Econometrica 2025, CC BY 4.0. Six core propositions with locators, the capture-and-communication game model, and equilibrium characterization with equations.
- [Adaptive Maximization of Social Welfare: Cesa-Bianchi, Colomboni & Kasy (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/bianchi-et-al-adaptive-maximization-social-welfare-2025.md): Distilled: A policymaker repeatedly setting a tax rate to maximize social welfare (weighted sum of public revenue and private consumer surplus) cannot observe welfare directly, only demand outcomes; cumulative regret must grow at rate T^{2/3} (vs T^{1/2} for standard bandits), and Tempered Exp3 achieves this bound while Dyadic Search recovers T^{1/2} under concavity. Econometrica 2025, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, the setup model, and both algorithms with equations.
- [Insurance and Inequality With Persistent Private Information: Bloedel, Krishna & Leukhina (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/bloedel-et-al-insurance-inequality-persistent-private-2025.md): Distilled: Under any ergodic finite-state Markov type process, the optimal insurance contract always generates immiseration (Theorem 1), with backloaded high-powered incentives under positive serial correlation (Theorem 2). Econometrica 2025, paywalled. Five core results with source locators, the recursive contract model, the marginal cost martingale method, and numerical illustrations of speed of immiseration and short-run distortions.
- [Double Robust Bayesian ATE Inference: Breunig, Liu & Yu (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/breunig-et-al-double-robust-bayesian-inference-2025.md): Proposes a doubly robust Bayesian procedure for ATE estimation under unconfoundedness that adjusts the conditional mean prior and corrects the posterior via the semiparametric efficient influence function, proving a new Bernstein-von Mises theorem with exact frequentist coverage under double robust smoothness. Simulations on Lalonde-Dehejia-Wahba data show near-nominal coverage (0.95-0.98) with shorter credible intervals than prior-adjusted Bayesian and doubly robust frequentist alternatives. Econometrica 2025, CC BY 4.0; LLM-distilled, not human-verified, not reproduced.
- [Making Subsidies Work: Cingano, Palomba, Pinotti & Rettore (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/cingano-et-al-making-subsidies-work-rules-2025.md): Distilled: Using a regression discontinuity design around Italy's L488/92 investment subsidy program (1996-2007), this paper finds that subsidies raised firm investment by 43% and employment by 17% over six years, at a cost per new job 3.5 times higher in Southern than Northern Italy. Eliminating political discretion from allocation would reduce cost per job by 11%, while relying solely on discretion would raise it by 42%. Econometrica 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the empirical specifications.
- [Comparative Statics With Adjustment Costs: Dekel, Quah & Sinander (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/dekel-et-al-comparative-statics-adjustment-costs-2025.md): Distilled: Develops a general theory of monotone comparative statics for models with adjustment costs, showing that ordinal complementarity on the objective and minimal monotonicity of the cost function suffice for comparative-statics conclusions and a Le Chatelier principle. Applied to saving, factor demand, pricing, labor supply, and capital investment. Econometrica 2025, CC BY 4.0. Six core theorems with proof locators and formal equations.
- [Feedback Design in Dynamic Moral Hazard: Ely, Georgiadis & Rayo (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/ely-et-al-feedback-design-dynamic-moral-2025.md): Distilled: In a dynamic moral hazard setting with a binary success signal, the jointly optimal performance feedback and reward contract takes a two-phase bang-bang form: an initial silent phase (agent kept in the dark) followed by a full-transparency pronto phase, driven by a backward compounding effect that makes front-loading ignorance uniquely optimal. Econometrica 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Five core theoretical results with source locators, the model equations, and the solution method; LLM-distilled, not reproduced.
- [How Well Does Bargaining Work: Freyberger & Larsen (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/freyberger-larsen-well-bargaining-work-consumer-2025.md): Distilled: Freyberger and Larsen (2025) derive sharp nonparametric bounds on buyer and seller private value distributions and on the first-best trade probability from eBay Best Offer bargaining data, using a hierarchy of behavioral assumptions without specifying a complete equilibrium model. Under preferred assumptions (stochastic monotonicity and positive correlation), at least 37% of failed trades are cases where gains from trade existed. Econometrica 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the bounds framework with equations, and the estimation approach.
- [Estimating Candidate Valence: Kawai & Sunada (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/kawai-sunada-estimating-candidate-valence-2025.md): Distilled: Kawai and Sunada estimate valence measures for U.S. House candidates by adapting the Olley and Pakes (1996) production function control function approach to an election game, controlling for endogenous campaign spending and selection from challenger entry. Incumbents have about 3.5 percentage-point higher valence than challengers on average, accounting for about 21 percent of the incumbency advantage. Econometrica Vol. 93(2), 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the dynamic game model equations, and the structural estimation strategy; LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Auctioning Control and Cash-Flow Rights Separately: Liu & Bernhardt (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/econometrica/2025/liu-bernhardt-auctioning-control-cash-flow-2025.md): A seller increases expected revenue by sometimes allocating control and cash-flow rights to different bidders: separation reduces a controller's information rent because project payoffs are most sensitive to his signal when he runs the project. Two ex post incentive-compatible separation mechanisms always strictly dominate no-separation English auctions in expected revenue for any minimum stake requirement. Econometrica 2025, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, the model equations, and the mechanism designs.
- [Active Fund Management when ESG Matters: Avramov, Cheng & Tarelli (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/avramov-active-fund-management-esg-2026.md): Distilled: This paper develops and tests an equilibrium model of active fund management with ESG considerations, showing that heterogeneous fund ESG preferences intensify information acquisition across the ESG spectrum, improving price informativeness and lowering the cost of capital for green firms through a concave, amplified ESG-return relation. Journal of Banking and Finance vol. 182 (2026), CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the model equations, and the method.
- [Illegal Insider Trading Profitability and the Legal Environment: Batten, Liu & Sha (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/batten-illegal-insider-trading-profitability-2026.md): Distilled: Using 521 hand-collected adjudicated insider-trading cases from China (2006-2018), this paper finds that stronger provincial legal environments are associated with significantly higher per-trade abnormal returns, consistent with a risk-compensation mechanism in which stricter enforcement screens out low-return trades and leaves only high-return ones. Journal of Banking and Finance 185 (2026) 107609, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets, and regression specifications. LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Crowded Spaces and Anomalies: Chincarini, Lazo-Paz & Moneta (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/chincarini-crowded-spaces-anomalies-2026.md): Distilled: This paper shows that crowded equity positions in well-known stock market anomalies earn significantly higher risk-adjusted returns (FF3 monthly alpha of 1.44% for the most vs. least crowded stocks) and that crowding increases institutional exposure to crash risk. The anomaly alpha is concentrated among the most crowded stocks and persists after publication dates. Journal of Banking and Finance 182 (2026) 107579, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the crowding measures, and the empirical specifications.
- [Fed Put in the Equity Options Markets: Dahiya, Kamrad, Poti & Siddique (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/dahiya-fed-put-equity-options-2026.md): Distilled: Documents the Fed Put (Greenspan Put) in S&P 500 and S&P 100 equity index option markets. Put implied volatility is 3 to 5 percentage points lower during accommodative monetary policy, strongest when investor risk aversion is high, and concentrated in the pre-2008 period; the effect largely vanishes after the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 188 (2026), paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the Taylor Rule identification design, and IV-GMM estimation.
- [Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Enkhbold (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/enkhbold-monetary-policy-bank-market-power-2026.md): Distilled: Using US bank- and loan-level data from 2000 to 2019, the paper shows that a 100 bps monetary policy shock transmits 34 bps to mortgage rates in competitive banking markets but near-zero in concentrated markets; wholesale funding reliance amplifies the gap in competitive markets and dampens it in concentrated ones. Journal of Banking and Finance 187 (2026), paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, and the estimating regression specification.
- [Options Trading and Price Stability: Kim (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/kim-options-trading-stabilize-prices-2026.md): Using the SEC Penny Pilot Program as a natural experiment, Kim (2026) provides causal evidence that options trading reduces stock price volatility: a one-standard-deviation increase in options volume lowers total volatility by 1.21 percentage points via a liquidity buffer channel and a mispricing correction channel. Journal of Banking and Finance 185 (2026), paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the regression specifications. LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Election Cycles and Systemic Risk: Kladakis & Skouralis (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/kladakis-election-cycles-systemic-risk-2026.md): Distilled: Election years are associated with significantly higher bank systemic risk across 22 OECD economies (2000-2023), with ΔCoVaR rising 3.57% above the overall average in the election year, while the pre-election period shows a decline. The effect is stronger for snap elections, new-government outcomes, and common-law countries; macroprudential tightening mitigates it. Journal of Banking and Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the ΔCoVaR estimation method, and the panel regression specification.
- [Air Pollution and Bank Loan Pricing: Li et al. (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/li-air-pollution-bank-loan-pricing-2026.md): Distilled: Using proprietary loan data from a Chinese state-owned commercial bank linked to firm-level ESR emissions, Li et al. find that higher air pollutant intensity significantly raises bank loan spreads via labor risk and environmental transition risk channels, confirmed causal by a PSM-DID design around China's 2013 Air Pollution Control Action Plan. Journal of Banking and Finance 185 (2026), paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets, and estimating specifications.
- [Hidden Cost of ETF Investing: Liu, T. Zhang & Y. Zhang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/liu-hidden-cost-etf-investing-2026.md): Distilled: ETFs earn significantly positive overnight returns and negative intraday returns; the gap is driven by retail demand near the market open and arbitrage constraints that prevent immediate price correction. Journal of Banking and Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the three tested hypotheses, and the estimating equations.
- [Housing Booms and Local Capital Misallocation: Liu, Zhao & Zhao (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/liu-housing-booms-capital-misallocation-2026.md): Distilled: Exploits China's 2010-11 housing purchase restriction (HPR) policy as a natural experiment to show housing booms crowd out bank credit to manufacturing firms via reduced household mortgage and local government loan demand, worsening capital misallocation; the HPR policy improvement raised China's aggregate industrial TFP by approximately 2-3%. Journal of Banking and Finance 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the DiD/event-study design, and the TFP aggregation equation.
- [Repurchasing Overpriced Shares: Oded (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/oded-firms-repurchase-shares-overpriced-2026.md): Distilled: Jacob Oded proposes an agency model in which firms repurchase shares even when overpriced because insiders' benefit from preventing free cash waste can outweigh the cost of overpaying. Journal of Banking and Finance vol. 182 (2026), paywalled. Five core results covering three equilibrium types and their governance determinants, with model equations and derivations.
- [Time-Varying Pollution Premium: Yin, Yu & Chen (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jbf/2026/yin-time-varying-pollution-premium-2026.md): Distilled: A long-short portfolio of high- versus low-emission US firms earns significant abnormal returns in constant factor models, but a semiparametric time-varying estimate shows the premium is significant only before 2005 and statistically indistinguishable from zero thereafter; risk aversion, macroeconomic uncertainty, natural disasters, and consumer sentiment are the most robust determinants of the time-varying pattern. Journal of Banking and Finance 187 (2026), paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the estimation equations.
- [Rookie Directors and Board Efficacy: Al Dah, Dah & Stathopoulos (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/aldah-rookie-directors-board-efficacy-2026.md): Distilled: Rookie board refreshment (not merely rookie presence) enhances CEO turnover-performance sensitivity, improves managerial incentives, and reduces discretionary accruals; seasoned refreshment improves investment efficiency and acquisition outcomes without hindering monitoring. Journal of Corporate Finance 96 (2026), CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the tested hypotheses, and estimating equations.
- [Local Peer Effects and Corporate Investment: Bao & Goetz (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/bao-local-peer-effects-corporate-investment-2026.md): Distilled: Using staggered U.S. state corporate income tax changes as an instrument within cross-state Economic Areas, Bao and Goetz identify a positive causal effect of local peer firms' investment on a firm's own investment, confirmed separately for physical and intangible capital, with learning from same-type peers as the primary mechanism. Journal of Corporate Finance vol. 97 (2026), paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, and empirical specifications.
- [Pay Restrictions and Labor Investment: Cao, Hasan, Huang & Zhao (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/cao-pay-restrictions-labor-investment-2026.md): Distilled: Exploiting China's 2014 SOE executive compensation reform as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper shows pay restrictions reduce abnormal labor investment in state-owned enterprises by 3.91 to 4.82 percent, operating through strengthened internal governance and reduced social comparison between executives and rank-and-file employees. Journal of Corporate Finance 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and the empirical specifications.
- [Mandatory CSR Spending and Firm Risk: Chauhan, Ghosh & Jadiyappa (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/chauhan-mandatory-csr-firm-risk-india-2026.md): Distilled: Exploiting India's 2013 mandatory CSR regulation as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper finds that firms subject to mandatory CSR spending exhibit higher systematic risk (equity beta) than non-subject firms, with operating leverage as the primary transmission channel. Journal of Corporate Finance vol 98 (2026) 102965, paywalled (Elsevier). Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating equations.
- [Lenders Pricing Cybersecurity Risk: Choi, Degryse & Smedts (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/choi-lenders-price-cybersecurity-risk-2026.md): Distilled: Using syndicated loan data for U.S. non-financial firms (2012-2018), lenders charge 4 to 13 basis points higher loan spreads for firms with rising ex-ante cybersecurity risk, with commercial banks pricing more conservatively than non-bank lenders and pricing concentrated among lenders who are themselves aware of cybersecurity risk. Cybersecurity insurance does not mitigate the higher spreads. Journal of Corporate Finance vol. 98, 2026, paywalled; eight core results with source locators, the regression specifications, and datasets used.
- [M&As and Innovation: Farida, Fidrmuc & Zhang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/farida-mas-innovation-private-targets-2026.md): Distilled: Acquiring private rather than public targets raises acquirer patent quantity, quality, and economic value by 8 to 15 percent more, with larger innovation synergies and inventor-network growth, in a matched US sample 1990-2020. Journal of Corporate Finance 96 (2026) 102905, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the hypothesis framework, and the PPML difference-in-differences specification.
- [Real Estate Collateral, Lender Screening, and M&A Performance: Gao, Luong & Qiu (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/gao-real-estate-collateral-ma-performance-2026.md): Distilled: Higher market value of corporate real estate (REMV) improves acquirer M&A deal quality measured by three-day announcement returns, operating through two channels: real estate collateral triggers tighter lender acquisition covenants (ex-ante screening), and REMV appreciation expands financial flexibility for constrained firms in high-growth industries. Journal of Corporate Finance 98, 2026, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, the empirical specifications, and the REMV construction equations.
- [Generalist CEO and Managerial Challenge: Gelman, Fralich, Bitektine & Zahraei (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/gelman-generalist-ceo-managerial-challenge-2026.md): Distilled: CEO generalist experience raises announcement CARs only when the hiring firm faces a managerial challenge (high complexity or prior poor performance); the pooled average effect is zero. CEO compensation carries a stable experience premium regardless of firm challenge. Journal of Corporate Finance vol. 97 (2026), CC BY 4.0. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, the CEO job-market toy model, and the event-study and OLS interaction specifications.
- [Competition and the Value of Innovation: Hu & Ma (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/hu-competition-value-of-innovation-2026.md): Distilled: Using a stock-market-based patent value measure, Hu and Ma (2026) document a negative relationship between product-market competition intensity and the economic value of newly granted patents among US public firms 1986-2020; a quasi-experimental design exploiting horizontal M&A events confirms causality, with non-merging peers' patents gaining an average 2.8% in value after such deals. Journal of Corporate Finance vol. 96 (2026) 102909, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the hypotheses, and the estimating equations.
- [Real Effects of Tick-Size Adjustments: Lin, Yao & Zou (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/lin-real-effects-tick-size-ma-2026.md): Distilled: Using the SEC's 2016 Tick Size Pilot as an exogenous shock to stock liquidity, this paper shows that pilot firms required to quote and trade at a larger minimum price increment significantly reduce M&A investment intensity, shift toward smaller private targets, cut stock payment, and retain only deals with better announcement returns during the two-year pilot; the effect reverses partially after the pilot ends. Journal of Corporate Finance 96 (2026), paywalled (Elsevier). Nine core results with source locators, the DID specification, and channel evidence on information asymmetry and valuation. LLM-distilled, not human-verified.
- [Deposit Insurance and LLP Discretion: Pugachev, Robin, Wang & Yang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/pugachev-deposit-insurance-loan-loss-provisioning-2026.md): Distilled: The 2008 EESA expansion of US deposit insurance from $100,000 to $250,000 caused affected banks to provision more conservatively, increasing discretionary loan loss provision by approximately 3.4 basis points of lagged loans (38% of the mean LLP level), with effects concentrated at banks that increased risk most and faced the most regulatory scrutiny. Journal of Corporate Finance vol. 99, 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the LLP prediction model, and the DiD specifications. LLM-distilled; not human-verified.
- [Insider Trading with Options: Vacca (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jcf/2026/vacca-insider-trading-options-employees-2026.md): Distilled: Using Finnish securities registry data (1995-2014), Vacca (2026) documents that rank-and-file employees' open-market purchases of own-company call options predict weekly excess stock returns of approximately 60 basis points, peaking before earnings announcements and extending to supply-chain partners. Journal of Corporate Finance 98 (2026) 102963, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, and the identification strategy.
- [Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns: Babiak & Barunik (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jef/2026/babiak-deep-learning-optimal-portfolio-returns-2026.md): Distilled: Deep feedforward and LSTM recurrent neural networks deliver economically significant gains in certainty-equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios over linear predictive regressions for a two-asset optimal US equity portfolio. Journal of Empirical Finance 2026, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the investor model, and the neural network method with its defining equations.
- [Salience Theory and Corporate Bond Returns: Chen, Wang, Wei, Wu & Zhang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jef/2026/chen-salience-corporate-bond-returns-2026.md): Distilled: U.S. corporate bonds with high salience theory (ST) values underperform those with low ST values by 0.61% per month in decile sorts (annualized Sharpe ratio 2.52, more than double the comparable equity figure). The premium is primarily driven by the outperformance of bonds with salient downside rather than the underperformance of those with salient upside, reflecting the asymmetric payoff structure of corporate bonds. Journal of Empirical Finance 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the BGS salience model, and the estimation and testing methods.
- [Factor Pricing Across Asset Classes: Dang, Hollstein & Prokopczuk (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jef/2026/dang-factor-pricing-across-asset-classes-2026.md): Distilled: Factor models specialized for one asset class have limited pricing power across others; markets are significantly but imperfectly integrated. An optimal eight-factor integrated model spanning five asset classes achieves a full-sample Sharpe ratio of 1.053, far exceeding the AMP global benchmark (0.171) and all single-class models. Journal of Empirical Finance 2026, CC BY-NC 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the method, and the empirical specifications.
- [The Decay of cay: Dauber & Lawrenz (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jef/2026/dauber-decay-of-cay-2026.md): Distilled: Documents a substantial decline over the last two decades in the predictive power of the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) for US stock market excess returns, attributing it to a structural shift in the cointegration relationship as asset wealth decouples from aggregate consumption and labor income. Proposes a top-10% household version of cay as the most stable remaining predictor. Journal of Empirical Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [Mutual Fund Stars: Hounyo & Lin (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jef/2026/hounyo-mutual-fund-stars-pick-stocks-2026.md): Distilled: Hounyo and Lin identify a "duplicate observations" flaw in the Fama-French (2010) bootstrap for mutual fund performance tests and propose a wild bootstrap fix (CSDWB). Applied to U.S. equity mutual funds (1984-2019), CSDWB finds a measurable fraction outperform the market, concentrated before 2003. Journal of Empirical Finance 2026, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the regression framework, and the wild bootstrap method with its defining equations.
- [Peer Effects in Financial Expectations: Thornton (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jef/2026/thornton-peer-effects-financial-expectations-2026.md): Distilled: Using the British Household Panel Survey and an instrumental variables strategy, Thornton (2026) provides causal evidence that neighborhood financial expectations positively influence individual financial expectations, with a one-standard-deviation peer effect equal to roughly 31% of the family effect in financial beliefs. Journal of Empirical Finance 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the empirical specifications.
- [Dynamic Competition in Negotiated Price Markets: Allen & Li (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/allen-dynamic-competition-negotiated-price-2025.md): Distilled: Using Canadian mortgage contract data, Allen and Li document an "invest-and-harvest" pricing pattern and build a structural dynamic model of price negotiation with search and switching frictions to quantify market frictions and study counterfactual policies. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the estimation method.
- [Superstar Returns: Amaral, Dohmen, Kohl & Schularick (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/amaral-superstar-returns-spatial-heterogeneity-2025.md): Distilled: Large metropolitan areas earn about 95 to 100 basis points less per year in total housing returns than the rest of the same country, driven by persistently lower rental yields that more than offset their well-known capital gain advantage. The return gap is rationalized as compensation for higher idiosyncratic and covariance risk in smaller, less liquid housing markets. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical framework (CAPM-style covariance pricing plus idiosyncratic risk), and the empirical specifications.
- [Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks: Anderson, Du & Schlusche (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/anderson-arbitrage-capital-global-banks-2025.md): Distilled: The 2016 U.S. money market fund reform cut banks' unsecured wholesale funding by about $600 billion; global banks responded by cutting liquid arbitrage positions (IOER and CIP arbitrage), not loan supply. J. Finance 2025, U.S. Government work (public domain in USA). Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the identification strategy.
- [Are CEOs Rewarded for Luck: Andreani, Ellahie & Shivakumar (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/andreani-ceos-rewarded-luck-evidence-2025.md): Distilled: Using the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a quasi-natural experiment, the paper shows that weakly scrutinized CEOs are compensated for one-off windfall tax gains (deferred tax liability remeasurement) but not penalized for corresponding tax losses, consistent with rent extraction rather than optimal contracting. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical design, and the estimating equations.
- [Crisis Interventions in Corporate Insolvency: Antill & Clayton (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/antill-crisis-interventions-corporate-insolvency-2025.md): Distilled: A general-equilibrium model shows that optimal insolvency interventions can favor either liquidation or reorganization depending on which externality dominates: a fire-sale externality (fewer liquidations optimal) or a collateral externality (more liquidations optimal). J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the model, and the propositions with their equations.
- [Feedback Effects and Systematic Risk Exposures: Banerjee, Breon-Drish & Smith (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/banerjee-feedback-effects-systematic-risk-2025.md): Distilled: Models feedback effects when managers learn discount rates (not just cash flows) from stock prices, applied to climate-exposed investment. Shows cash-flow and price maximization both fail to maximize welfare because neither internalizes hedging and risk-sharing benefits of investment. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the model equations, and the equilibrium investment rules under each objective.
- [Value without Employment: Barkai & Panageas (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/barkai-value-employment-2025.md): Distilled: Young firms have sharply reduced their contribution to aggregate employment since the early 1980s, yet their contribution to aggregate sales and market capitalization has remained stable, implying a rising average-to-marginal revenue product of labor (ARPL-to-MRPL ratio). A calibrated model of dynamic firm heterogeneity shows this single shift jointly explains the labor share decline, muted investment-share response, and declining job flows, while predicting only a modest (~8%) long-run drop in aggregate consumption. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (dynamic firm heterogeneity with monopolistic competition), and the method with equations.
- [Interlocking Directorates and Competition in Banking: Barone, Schivardi & Sette (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/barone-interlocking-directorates-competition-banking-2025.md): Distilled: Exploiting Italy's 2011 Monti Decree, which unexpectedly banned shared board members among competing banks, the paper finds that prohibiting interlocks reduced corporate loan interest rates by 14 to 32 basis points on previously interlocked relationships, with larger drops for high-quality firms and high-market-share networks, and a subsequent increase in price dispersion consistent with competitive pricing. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating specifications with equations.
- [Uncovering the Hidden Effort Problem: Ben-Rephael, Carlin, Da & Israelsen (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/ben-rephael-uncovering-hidden-effort-problem-2025.md): Distilled: Uses minute-by-minute Bloomberg platform activity to construct a new measure of executive workday length (AWL) and shows that greater effort by CEOs and CFOs predicts positive earnings surprises, higher cumulative abnormal returns of 25-50 bps per one-hour AWL increase (persisting 4-10 weeks), and lower CDS spreads. Weather-based IV confirms causality. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [Investor Factors: Betermier, Calvet, Knupfer & Kvaerner (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/betermier-investor-factors-2025.md): Distilled: pricing factors built from individual investor holdings (Norway 1997-2017); a two-factor model of the market plus a combined age-wealth portfolio prices the cross section of Norwegian equities out-of-sample and absorbs established firm factors. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method with defining equations.
- [How Much Does Racial Bias Affect Mortgage Lending: Bhutta, Hizmo & Ringo (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/bhutta-much-racial-bias-affect-2025.md): Distilled: Using confidential HMDA data for 2018-2019, this paper finds that standard underwriting factors explain most racial denial disparities, leaving a residual 1 to 2 percentage point excess denial gap that is itself at least partially explained by unobserved risk factors rather than discrimination. J. Finance 2025, U.S. Government work (public domain). Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the empirical specifications.
- [Lucky Survivor: Van Binsbergen, Hua, Peeters & Wachter (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/binsbergen-united-states-lucky-survivor-2025.md): Distilled: Using a cross-section of 55 countries from 1920 to 2020, the paper quantifies survivorship bias in U.S. equity market performance via a hierarchical Bayesian model that cross-learns crash risk across countries, finding that survivorship bias explains about one-third of the 6% historical U.S. equity premium, with luck and learning jointly accounting for roughly 2 percentage points. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Five core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (hierarchical Beta-Bernoulli crash-belief model), and the method (Hamiltonian Monte Carlo MCMC).
- [Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits: Bolton, Li, Wang & Yang (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/bolton-dynamic-banking-value-deposits-2025.md): Distilled: A continuous-time structural model shows that banks cannot fully control deposit flows under leverage regulation, so deposit inflows can hurt shareholder value when equity capital is low, the deposit marginal q turns negative, and lending falls. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the model (HJB with deposit-dynamics state variable), and the method (ODE solution with boundary conditions).
- [CEO Stress, Aging, and Death: Borgschulte, Guenzel, Liu & Malmendier (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/borgschulte-ceo-stress-aging-death-2025.md): Distilled: Managerial stress from industry distress shocks accelerates visible aging by roughly one year and raises CEO mortality hazard by ~15%, equivalent to 1.1 years of additional chronological age; antitakeover laws that reduce monitoring intensity imply a two-year longevity gain. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical strategy (DiD apparent-aging + stratified Cox hazard), and the identifying variation.
- [Does Floor Trading Matter: Brogaard, Ringgenberg & Roesch (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/brogaard-floor-trading-matter-2025.md): Distilled: Using the COVID-19 suspension of NYSE floor trading on March 23, 2020 as a natural experiment, this paper finds that human floor traders significantly improve market quality: their removal raises proportional effective spreads by roughly 9 basis points (more than 70% of the pre-closure mean) and increases Hasbrouck pricing errors by approximately 6%. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the DiD identification design, and the mechanism tests.
- [Forest through the Trees: Bryzgalova, Pelger & Zhu (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/bryzgalova-forest-cross-sections-2025.md): Distilled: Asset Pricing Trees (AP Trees) use decision-tree conditional sorts with global SDF-spanning pruning to build interpretable cross-sections of stock returns that achieve out-of-sample Sharpe ratios up to three times higher than conventional double and triple sorts. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (SDF projection), and the method (AP Trees + AP Pruning) with its defining equations.
- [Privacy and Team Incentives: Buffa, Liu & White (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/buffa-privacy-team-incentives-2025.md): Distilled: When compensation contracts are bilateral and private, principals contracting with complementary-effort teams face a commitment problem that depresses incentive pay. Delegating contracting authority to the most skilled agent (team leader) mitigates the problem via an observability effect, and dominates centralized contracting when effort intensity is high enough or agents are sufficiently asymmetric. The Journal of Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, no estimation, pure theory with a banking-syndicate application.
- [Pockets of Predictability (Replication): Cakici, Fieberg, Neumaier, Poddig & Zaremba (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/cakici-pockets-predictability-replication-2025.md): Distilled: Cakici et al. replicate Farmer-Schmidt-Timmermann (2023) and find a critical one-sided vs two-sided kernel lookahead error in the original code; correcting it collapses average integral R-squared by roughly 20-fold and invalidates most FST conclusions about exploitable pockets of predictability. J. Finance 80(6), December 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and the identification strategy.
- [Social Security and Trends in Wealth Inequality: Catherine, Miller & Sarin (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/catherine-social-security-trends-wealth-2025.md): Distilled: When Social Security wealth is properly included, top wealth shares in the United States have not meaningfully increased since 1989, overturning the finding of large inequality growth based on marketable-wealth-only measures. Social Security grew from $7.2 trillion in 1989 to $40.6 trillion in 2019 and now represents nearly 50% of the wealth of the bottom 90%. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the empirical method.
- [Too Much, Too Soon, for Too Long: Chemla, Rivera & Shi (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/chemla-too-much-too-soon-2025.md): Distilled: In a general equilibrium model with dynamic moral hazard and endogenous outside options, competitive executive compensation is inefficiently high, front-loaded, and associated with excessive managerial tenure. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, the model, and the method.
- [Venture Capital and Startup Agglomeration: Chen & Ewens (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/chen-venture-capital-startup-agglomeration-2025.md): Distilled: Using the Volcker Rule as a natural experiment, Chen and Ewens show that bank withdrawal from VC limited partnerships caused fewer and smaller VC funds in high-bank-exposure states, reduced startup financing and valuations, and induced startups to migrate to VC hubs (CA, MA, NY), directly implicating the local supply of venture capital in startup geographic concentration. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy (DiD on Volcker Rule exposure), and the estimating specifications.
- [Bank Funding Risk, Reference Rates, and Credit Supply: Cooperman, Duffie, Luck, Wang & Yang (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/cooperman-bank-funding-risk-reference-2025.md): Distilled: Credit-sensitive reference rates like LIBOR mitigate banks' debt-overhang cost from revolving credit commitments; the transition to risk-free SOFR increases expected draw costs by about 15 bps and reduces equilibrium credit line commitments by roughly 6%, with effects concentrated at high-debt-overhang banks. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the equilibrium model of credit line provision, and the empirical method.
- [Repo over the Financial Crisis: Copeland & Martin (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/copeland-repo-financial-crisis-2025.md): Distilled: Using new confidential data covering all four segments of the U.S. repo market (bilateral and tri-party, interdealer and dealer-to-client), this paper documents that the 2008 decline in repo activity was largest in bilateral (MIX) segments and disproportionately concentrated in Treasury-backed repos, and was driven by a pullback in securities-driven market-making trades rather than by counterparty credit concerns. J. Finance 2025, U.S. Government work / public domain. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, and the empirical specifications.
- [Term Structure in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Costain, Nuno & Thomas (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/costain-term-structure-interest-rates-2025.md): Distilled: Costain, Nuno, and Thomas build an arbitrage-based affine term structure model for a two-country monetary union with sovereign default risk, showing that the credit risk premium accounts for roughly three-quarters of the Italy-Germany sovereign spread, and that ECB PEPP asset purchases compressed Italian yields primarily through a default risk extraction channel rather than the standard duration risk channel. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [Financial Education of Executives: Custodio, Mendes & Metzger (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/custodio-impact-financial-education-executives-2025.md): Distilled: An RCT with 92 medium and large Mozambican firms shows that an 18-hour MBA-style corporate finance course for top executives causes firms to reduce working capital by 0.4 to 0.5 standard deviations (driven mainly by shorter accounts receivable collection periods), generating cash that is channeled into capital expenditure and raising ROA by 0.6 to 1.1 standard deviations. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating equations.
- [ESG News, Future Cash Flows, and Firm Value: Derrien, Kruger, Landier & Yao (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/derrien-esg-news-future-cash-2025.md): Distilled: Using RepRisk ESG incident data and IBES analyst forecasts across 9,737 firms in 49 countries from 2008 to 2019, the paper shows that negative ESG news causes analysts to significantly downgrade earnings forecasts at short and longer horizons, driven primarily by expected sales declines rather than higher costs, and that forecast revisions can account for most of the negative impact of ESG incidents on firm value. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (Gordon / dividend discount decomposition), and the empirical specifications.
- [Conflicting Priorities: Donaldson, Gromb & Piacentino (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/donaldson-conflicting-priorities-theory-covenants-2025.md): Distilled: A theory of why firms use secured debt, unsecured debt, and negative pledge covenants together, despite covenants being defeated by collateral priority. The model shows covenants and collateral are complementary tools: collateral implements efficient dilution that covenants alone cannot, while covenants commit the borrower not to use collateral when dilution is inefficient. The optimal debt structure is multilayered, consistent with observed covenant violations and waivers. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Five core propositions with source locators, the three-date model, and the mechanism.
- [Sustainability or Greenwashing: Duchin, Gao & Xu (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/duchin-sustainability-greenwashing-evidence-asset-2025.md): Distilled: Firms divest pollutive plants in response to environmental pressures without any reduction in pollution levels, consistent with a greenwashing divestiture strategy. Sellers gain higher ESG ratings and lower EPA enforcement costs while buyers are firms with weaker environmental pressures and pre-existing business ties to the sellers. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, the conceptual framework, and the empirical specifications.
- [Equilibrium Data Mining and Data Abundance: Dugast & Foucault (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/dugast-equilibrium-data-mining-data-2025.md): Distilled: A rational-expectations equilibrium model shows that data abundance (a larger data frontier) always raises price informativeness but can reduce data miners' search intensity and the capital allocated to quant funds, with asset managers' average performance being hump-shaped in both the data frontier and search costs. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, the model equations, and the equilibrium derivation.
- [Would Order-By-Order Auctions Be Competitive: Ernst, Spatt & Sun (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/ernst-would-order-order-auctions-2025.md): Distilled: A theoretical model comparing brokers' routing (current U.S. equity market structure) to SEC-proposed order-by-order auctions for retail trades shows that auctions improve allocative efficiency but worsen retail investor welfare in illiquid stocks due to the winner's curse. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Six core results with source locators, the model (inventory-cost common-value auction), and the method (linear symmetric equilibrium).
- [Impediments to the Schumpeterian Process: Faccio & McConnell (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/faccio-impediments-schumpeterian-process-replacement-2025.md): Distilled: Using hand-assembled data on the 20 largest firms across up to 75 countries from circa 1910, Faccio and McConnell find that political connections are the primary impediment to the replacement of large firms, but only when accompanied by cross-border barriers to trade and capital flows. The Journal of Finance 80(6) 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the empirical specifications.
- [The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking: Falato & Scharfstein (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/falato-stock-market-bank-risk-2025.md): Distilled: Banks that go public (IPO) increase risk as measured by confidential CAMELS supervisory ratings, relative to a matched control group of banks that filed but withdrew their IPOs. The increase in risk boosts short-term ROE but reduces it four years out, consistent with stock-market short-termism driving bank risk. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets, the theoretical mechanism (Stein 1989 short-termism), and the difference-in-differences estimating equations.
- [The Value of Bank Lending: Flanagan (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/flanagan-value-bank-lending-2025.md): Distilled: Using novel realized cash flows for 8,100 syndicated term loans (1992-2014) and a private-equity-style risk-adjustment methodology, Flanagan (2025) finds that banks earn 177 bps annualized gross risk-adjusted returns on loan cash flows, add roughly $75 million of value annually per loan portfolio, and that shareholders receive near-zero net risk-adjusted returns once lending expenses are deducted. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the economic framework, the method (risk-adjusted profit adapted from Gupta and Van Nieuwerburgh (2021)), and empirical specifications.
- [Intermediary Leverage Shocks and Funding Conditions: Fontaine, Garcia & Gungor (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/fontaine-intermediary-leverage-shocks-funding-2025.md): Distilled: Broker-dealer aggregate leverage responds to both demand and supply disturbances with opposite effects on expected returns and funding conditions. Disentangling the two shocks resolves sign puzzles on raw leverage risk across equity, bond, and option markets and confirms intermediary constraints as a priced source of risk. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the econometric model, and the structural VAR identification procedure.
- [Minority Representation at Mortgage Lenders: Frame, Huang, Jiang, Lee, Liu, Mayer & Sunderam (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/frame-impact-minority-representation-mortgage-2025.md): Distilled: Using new data linking U.S. mortgage applications to individual loan officers via NMLS and confidential HMDA, the paper shows that minority borrowers face lower completion, approval, and origination rates when matched with White loan officers, but these gaps shrink substantially under minority loan officers, and that minority-officer-matched loans also default less, consistent with an informational advantage rather than favoritism. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating equations.
- [Baby Booms and Asset Booms: Francke & Korevaar (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/francke-baby-booms-asset-booms-2025.md): Distilled: Using centuries of data from Amsterdam and Paris, this paper shows that lagged birth rates are a major predictable driver of house prices, with high birth rates 25 to 29 years ago raising rent-price ratios and high birth rates 60 to 64 years ago lowering them; the effect concentrates in house prices rather than rents, consistent with age-dependent entry into and exit from homeownership. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the estimating equation, and the mechanism analysis.
- [Test Assets and Weak Factors: Giglio, Xiu & Zhang (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/giglio-test-assets-weak-factors-2025.md): Distilled: Giglio, Xiu, and Zhang show that weak factors and test asset selection are deeply connected, and introduce Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA), an iterative procedure that screens test assets by correlation with the target factor before applying PCA, enabling consistent risk premium estimation even when some latent factors are weak. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (linear factor model with weak factors), and the method (SPCA algorithm) with its defining equations.
- [Allocation of Socially Responsible Capital: Green & Roth (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/green-allocation-socially-responsible-capital-2025.md): Distilled: This paper develops a tractable equilibrium framework in which social and commercial investors compete to finance entrepreneurs with varying profit and social value profiles. It shows that values-aligned ESG strategies are inefficient at creating social impact and identifies alternative impact-aligned strategies that both increase welfare and financial returns. Supported by a laboratory experiment documenting heterogeneous social preferences. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Five core results with source locators, the model, method, and empirical specifications.
- [The Credit Line Channel: Greenwald, Krainer & Paul (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/greenwald-credit-line-channel-2025.md): Distilled: Using confidential U.S. loan-level supervisory data (FR Y-14Q), Greenwald, Krainer, and Paul document that the COVID-19 surge in bank credit was driven by large firms drawing existing credit lines, which crowded out term lending to smaller firms and amplified the decline in aggregate investment. A calibrated structural model quantifies the credit line channel as the transmission mechanism. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [The Disappearing Index Effect: Greenwood & Sammon (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/greenwood-disappearing-index-effect-2025.md): Distilled: The abnormal return from being added to or removed from the S&P 500 fell from an average of 7.4% in the 1990s to statistically indistinguishable from zero in the 2010s, driven by index migrations from the S&P MidCap and an overall rise in market liquidity around index events. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (demand-curve price impact), and the empirical decomposition.
- [Wealth and Insurance Choices: Gropper & Kuhnen (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/gropper-wealth-insurance-choices-evidence-2025.md): Distilled: Using administrative data on 63,000 U.S. households, Gropper and Kuhnen find that wealthier individuals hold more life insurance coverage, contradicting canonical theory that predicts a negative wealth-insurance relationship. The positive correlation persists after controlling for risk preferences, pricing, bequest motives, background risk, financial literacy, employer benefits, and liquidity constraints. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical framework, and the empirical specifications.
- [Sending Out an SMS: Grubb, Kelly, Nieboer, Osborne & Shaw (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/grubb-sending-out-sms-automatic-2025.md): Distilled: At-scale field experiments at major U.K. banks show that automatic enrollment into just-in-time overdraft text alerts reduces unarranged overdraft and unpaid item charges 17% to 19% and arranged overdraft charges 4% to 8%, implying potential annual market-wide savings of GBP 170 million to GBP 240 million. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating specification.
- [Excess Capacity, Marginal q, and Corporate Investment: Grullon & Ikenberry (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/grullon-excess-capacity-marginal-q-2025.md): Distilled: When managers anticipate excess capacity, average q becomes a biased proxy for marginal q; augmenting Tobin's q model with asset utilization (sales scaled by total capital including intangibles) substantially improves explanatory power in time-series and cross-sectional investment regressions, eliminates the paradoxical negative q-investment relation, and explains why investment rates have declined for decades despite rising average q. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the theoretical model, and the estimating specifications.
- [In Too Deep: Guenzel (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/guenzel-too-deep-effect-sunk-2025.md): Distilled: Quasi-random cost shocks in fixed-exchange-ratio stock mergers show that higher acquisition costs reduce subsequent divestiture rates by 8% to 9%, providing the first cleanly identified field evidence that sunk costs distort corporate investment decisions. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the conceptual framework, the identification design, and the estimating equations.
- [Thirty Years of Change: Guernsey, Guo, Liu & Serfling (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/guernsey-thirty-years-change-evolution-2025.md): Distilled: Using a new machine-learning-constructed dataset covering nearly all U.S. public firms from 1991 to 2020, this paper documents that classified (staggered) board usage has not declined overall; rather, its life-cycle dynamics have changed substantially by decade and IPO cohort, driven by falling collective-action costs and rising innovation-related investment. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical design, and the ML data-construction method.
- [Collusion in Brokered Markets: Hatfield, Kominers & Lowery (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/hatfield-collusion-brokered-markets-2025.md): Distilled: Models collusion in brokered markets (e.g., US residential real estate) as a repeated extensive-form game, showing that brokers can sustain prices substantially above marginal cost even with many independent agents and easy entry, by refusing to work with price deviators within-period. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the model, and the equilibrium construction.
- [War Discourse and the Cross Section: Hirshleifer, Mai & Pukthuanthong (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/hirshleifer-war-discourse-cross-section-2025.md): Distilled: a war-discourse factor (WarFac) derived from 7 million New York Times articles via semisupervised topic modelling predicts the cross section of stock returns with a significant, negative return premium across six broad sets of test assets. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method with defining equations.
- [Scope, Scale, and Concentration: Hoberg & Phillips (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/hoberg-scope-scale-concentration-21st-2025.md): Distilled: Using doc2vec text analysis of firm 10-Ks, Hoberg and Phillips document that U.S. firms expanded their product market scope by 50-70% from 1989 to 2017, primarily through acquisitions and R&D rather than capital expenditures, with scope expansion raising firm valuations by 29.5% of the interquartile range while leaving traditional Herfindahl-Hirschman Index concentration measures flat once scope is accounted for. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the method (D2V-Scope), and the empirical specifications with equations.
- [Auctions versus Negotiations: Hoffmann & Vladimirov (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/hoffmann-auctions-versus-negotiations-role-2025.md): Distilled: When payments can have a contingent component (equity, royalties, performance bonuses), a seller facing fewer bidders in optimally structured negotiations can earn strictly higher revenue than an auction with one more competing bidder. The key driver is bargaining power over the payment structure, not reserve-price setting. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Six core results with source locators, the model, and the formal propositions.
- [Worker Runs: Hoffmann & Vladimirov (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/hoffmann-worker-runs-2025.md): Distilled: Hoffmann and Vladimirov model how firms design compensation contracts to prevent contagious collective worker departures ("worker runs"), showing that dilutable output-dependent pay and asymmetric compensation structures resolve the coordination problem at no extra cost. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Six core results with source locators, the model equations, and the key propositions.
- [Persuading Investors: Hu & Ma (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/hu-persuading-investors-video-based-2025.md): Distilled: Using machine learning to process 1,139 startup pitch videos across visual, vocal, and verbal dimensions, this paper finds that more positive pitch delivery (the Pitch Factor) raises accelerator funding probability by 3 pp (35.2% from baseline), yet funded startups with higher positivity underperform on every long-run measure, consistent with inaccurate investor beliefs (80%) and preference-based taste (20%) as the mechanism. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [The Global Credit Spread Puzzle: Huang, Nozawa & Shi (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/huang-global-credit-spread-puzzle-2025.md): Distilled: Structural credit risk models systematically underpredict investment-grade corporate bond spreads over government bonds and swap rates across eight developed economies, constituting a global credit spread puzzle. Incorporating endogenous bond market illiquidity via a He-Milbradt search model substantially mitigates the puzzle and raises individual-bond cross-sectional fit in every country. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the models (BC, CDG, HM), and the estimating specifications.
- [Private Equity and Financial Stability: Johnston-Ross, Ma & Puri (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/johnston-ross-private-equity-financial-stability-2025.md): Distilled: Using proprietary FDIC failed-bank bidding data and a quasi-random close-bid design, Johnston-Ross, Ma, and Puri show that PE investors filled the capital gap in the 2008 crisis by acquiring riskier failed banks that incumbent banks avoided, and that PE-acquired banks outperformed on branch preservation, deposit growth, small business lending, and regional employment recovery. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical design, and the estimating equations.
- [Going for Broke: de Jong, Kooijmans & Koudijs (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/jong-going-broke-bank-reputation-2025.md): Distilled: Using 18th-century Dutch plantation mortgage-backed securities, this paper shows high-reputation banks originated better mortgages and issued securities retaining 17.5 percentage points more value during market collapse, with the effect attenuated when bankers were shielded from downside risk or had short-run profit focus. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (banker reputation and MBS quality), and the method (mediation analysis, OLS with MBS fixed effects).
- [Regulatory Fragmentation: Kalmenovitz, Lowry & Volkova (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/kalmenovitz-regulatory-fragmentation-2025.md): Distilled: Using the full text of the Federal Register (1994-2019), the paper constructs a firm-specific measure of regulatory fragmentation and documents that fragmentation increases firm costs (SG&A +4.3% SD), reduces productivity (TFP -3.6% SD) and profitability (ROA -5.3% to -5.9% SD), slows growth, deters entry, and pushes out small firms, with inconsistency across agencies driving more harm than mere duplication. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the measurement framework, and the estimating specifications.
- [Intrahousehold Disagreement about Macroeconomic Expectations: Ke (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/ke-intrahousehold-disagreement-macroeconomic-expectations-2025.md): Distilled: Using the Health and Retirement Study and a preregistered randomized survey experiment, Da Ke documents that five in six U.S. married couples disagree about macroeconomic expectations (inflation, recessions, stock returns), and that intrahousehold belief disagreement causally reduces household stock market participation on both the extensive and intensive margins. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical model, and the experimental specifications.
- [Propagation of Cyberattacks through the Financial System: Kotidis & Schreft (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/kotidis-propagation-cyberattacks-financial-system-2025.md): Distilled: Using confidential Federal Reserve data on a multiday cyberattack on a technology service provider, Kotidis and Schreft (2025) quantify first-, second-, and third-round propagation effects through the Fedwire payment system, finding that business continuity plans and Federal Reserve support materially mitigated the disruption. J. Finance 2025, U.S. Government work, public domain in the USA. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical framework, and the estimating equations.
- [Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Expectations: Kremens, Martin & Varela (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/kremens-long-horizon-exchange-rate-2025.md): Distilled: Two-year-ahead survey forecasts of financial professionals successfully predict currency appreciation both in and out of sample, with estimated slope coefficients close to one. Three macro-finance variables (quanto-implied risk premium, real exchange rate, current account-to-GDP) explain most of the variation in survey expectations, with no residual "secret sauce." J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical framework (SDF-based UIP identity), and the main empirical specifications.
- [How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis: Krishnamurthy & Muir (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/krishnamurthy-credit-cycles-financial-crisis-2025.md): Distilled: Using credit spreads and credit growth across 17 countries from 1869 to 2022, this paper shows that spread spikes at crisis onset predict worse output losses, especially when precrisis credit growth was high, and that frothy credit markets (low spreads + high credit growth) predict future crises. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the FZ model of crises, and the estimating specifications.
- [Pricing Poseidon: Kruttli, Roth Tran & Watugala (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/kruttli-pricing-poseidon-extreme-weather-2025.md): Distilled: Firms in hurricane landfall regions experience implied volatility increases of up to 18%, reflecting persistent impact uncertainty that takes months to resolve; investors systematically underreact to this uncertainty until Hurricane Sandy (2012) served as a salient learning event. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical model, and the empirical specifications.
- [Personal Communication in an Automated World: Laudenbach & Siegel (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/laudenbach-personal-communication-automated-world-2025.md): Distilled: Personal two-way phone communication between a bank agent and a delinquent borrower increases timely repayment by 34.4 percentage points, reduces default by 23.8 percentage points, and reduces loan termination by 12.4 percentage points, identified via an IV exploiting random day-of-first-call variation. Evidence from a large German bank's early collection call center, Jan-Jun 2012, N=3,448 POS loan borrowers. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (IV framework), and the method (2SLS + MTE estimation).
- [Regulating Over-the-Counter Markets: Lee & Wang (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/lee-regulating-counter-markets-2025.md): Distilled: Lee and Wang embed dealer cream skimming via price discrimination into a Glosten-Milgrom framework and show that restricting OTC dealer discrimination worsens aggregate volume and average spreads yet can raise utilitarian welfare whenever adverse selection risk is low, via a novel cheap-substitution mechanism. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used (theoretical; empirical patterns in Internet Appendix), the model, and the method.
- [Decentralized Exchange: Lehar & Parlour (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/lehar-decentralized-exchange-uniswap-automated-2025.md): Distilled: Lehar and Parlour build a theoretical model of Uniswap's automated market maker (AMM), characterize equilibrium liquidity-pool size as a trade-off between fee revenue and adverse-selection (picking-off) risk, and show empirically that AMM pools are larger when volatility is lower and uninformed trading is higher, that AMM liquidity is more stable than limit-order book liquidity during extreme market events, and that Uniswap price impact is lower than Binance for low-volatility tokens. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Four core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (constant-product AMM + limit-order-book comparison), and the estimating specifications.
- [Women in Charge: Lewellen (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/lewellen-women-charge-evidence-hospitals-2025.md): Distilled: Female hospital CEOs make similar financial and investment decisions as male peers, respond identically to the 2008 financial crisis, but earn 32% lower pay (shrinking to 7.8% within-hospital) and face significantly higher turnover after poor performance. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, and the empirical specifications.
- [Raising Capital from Investor Syndicates: Luo (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/luo-raising-capital-investor-syndicates-2025.md): Distilled: An entrepreneur raising capital from a syndicate can use contract design to shape whether investors communicate truthfully or strategically persuade each other, explaining why flat contracts suit low-quality projects while hierarchical (differential-return) contracts suit high-quality ones. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Six core results with source locators, the game-theoretic model, and the formal equilibrium characterizations.
- [In the Red: Di Maggio, Ma & Williams (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/maggio-red-overdrafts-payday-lending-2025.md): Distilled: Banning high-to-low transaction reordering (HTLR) by banks reduces low-income consumers' payday borrowing by $85 per quarter (11%), improves credit scores, and raises consumption of essential goods, while also triggering bank branch closures in low-income areas. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy (class-action lawsuits as natural experiment), and the estimating specifications.
- [Creating Controversy in Proxy Voting Advice: Malenko, Malenko & Spatt (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/malenko-creating-controversy-proxy-voting-2025.md): Distilled: A profit-maximizing proxy advisor optimally produces fully informative research reports but partially informative, asymmetrically biased vote recommendations that favor the a priori unlikely alternative, increasing the incidence of close, contentious votes to enhance the value of its advice. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, the information-design model, and the Bayesian persuasion method with its defining equations.
- [Does Saving Cause Borrowing: Medina & Pagel (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/medina-saving-cause-borrowing-implications-2025.md): Distilled: A large-scale field experiment with 3.1 million Mexican bank customers shows that saving nudges increase savings and reduce spending but leave credit card borrowing unchanged, evidence more consistent with self- or partner-control explanations for the coholding puzzle than with transactions-convenience models. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the conceptual models, and the causal-forest method with its estimating equations.
- [Anomalies and Their Short-Sale Costs: Muravyev, Pearson & Pollet (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/muravyev-anomalies-short-sale-costs-2025.md): Distilled: across 162 asset pricing anomalies, average long-short abnormal returns of 0.14%/month vanish once stock borrow fees are accounted for, either by fee adjustment or by dropping high-fee stocks; the result holds for subsets including microcaps, high-fee anomalies, and factor-mimicking portfolios. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating specifications with exact panel-regression equations.
- [OTC Markets for Nonstandardized Assets: Nozawa & Tsoy (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/nozawa-counter-markets-nonstandardized-assets-2025.md): Distilled: Nozawa and Tsoy build a search-and-bargaining model of OTC markets for nonstandardized assets, deriving that bargaining delays are hump-shaped in unobserved asset quality and asset turnover is U-shaped. Empirical tests on corporate bonds (TRACE, 2002-2020) and commercial real estate (CoStar, 1998-2022) confirm the U-shaped liquidity pattern; a placebo test on agency MBS finds no such pattern. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [What Is the Cost of Privatization for Workers?: Olsson & Tag (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/olsson-what-cost-privatization-workers-2025.md): Distilled: Using Swedish administrative data covering two decades, this paper shows that privatization of state-owned enterprises imposes wage losses of 5-9% and raises unemployment by 12%, while firm-level productivity rises 35.7%; government transfers offset roughly half the worker income losses. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating equations.
- [Green Window Dressing: Parise & Rubin (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/parise-green-window-dressing-2025.md): Distilled: ESG mutual funds strategically inflate their ESG factor loadings in the 10 days before mandatory portfolio disclosure, then revert to higher-return, lower-ESG holdings after filing. Three complementary tests (factor loadings, return gap, and stock-level CARs) all confirm the behavior, which boosts Morningstar sustainability ratings and attracts investor flows. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification design, and the estimating specifications.
- [Household Portfolios and Retirement Saving: Parker, Schoar, Cole & Simester (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/parker-household-portfolios-retirement-saving-2025.md): Distilled: Using account-level data on millions of U.S. middle-class investors from 2006 to 2018, this paper documents that equity shares rose 10 percentage points relative to the 1990s, became hump-shaped over the life cycle, and were driven largely by the Pension Protection Act of 2006 and the adoption of target date funds as default options. Retirement contribution rates, by contrast, changed little. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification design (difference-in-differences around PPA 2006), and the estimating equations.
- [Designing Stress Scenarios: Parlatore & Philippon (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/parlatore-designing-stress-scenarios-2025.md): Distilled: Parlatore and Philippon model the optimal design of bank stress test scenarios as an information-acquisition problem, solving it via a Kalman filter. Capital requirements cover losses under an adverse scenario while targeted interventions depend on covariances among residual exposures; calibration shows information is far more valuable for targeted interventions than for broad capital requirements. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Five core results with source locators, the model, and the method.
- [Presidential Address: Housing Betas: Piazzesi (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/piazzesi-presidential-address-housing-betas-2025.md): Distilled: Housing betas (the stock-market beta of housing returns) were negative before the Global Financial Crisis and turned positive after it, despite highly correlated cashflow growth rates across the two asset classes. A heterogeneous-agent model with segmented and credit-connected markets explains the pre-GFC puzzle. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the model (OLG segmented-markets Lucas tree), and the propositions on negative comovement.
- [Simplicity and Risk: Puri (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/puri-simplicity-risk-2025.md): Distilled: This paper introduces and axiomatizes a preference for simplicity in choice under risk, showing that participants' measured risk aversion and dominance violations increase with lottery complexity (number of outcomes), holding moments fixed, and that no canonical behavioral theory fully captures this. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the simplicity representation model with axioms, and the experimental design.
- [The Actual Retail Price of Equity Trades: Schwarz, Barber, Huang, Jorion & Odean (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/schwarz-actual-retail-price-equity-2025.md): Distilled: A controlled trading experiment across six brokerage accounts at five brokers finds that mean account-level round-trip costs range from 7 to 46 basis points for identical simultaneous market orders, and that the entire cross-broker execution difference is attributable to market centers giving systematically different execution to different brokers for the same trades, not to broker venue-routing choices or payment for order flow. J. Finance 2025, CC BY-NC 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical design, and the regression specifications.
- [Segmented Arbitrage: Siriwardane, Sunderam & Wallen (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/siriwardane-segmented-arbitrage-2025.md): Distilled: across 32 arbitrage spreads in equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets (2010-2020), the average pairwise correlation is only 22%, far below what canonical intermediary asset pricing models predict. The paper attributes this to two distinct forms of segmentation: funding segmentation (certain trades rely on specific unsecured vs. secured funding sources) and balance-sheet segmentation (intermediaries specialize in certain trades, so idiosyncratic balance-sheet shocks move specific spreads). J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, and the theory tested.
- [Imperfect Intermediation of Money-Like Assets: Stein & Wallen (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/stein-imperfect-intermediation-money-like-2025.md): Distilled: T-bill rates fall below the Fed's RRP rate because money funds substitute imperfectly between T-bills and RRP, with heterogeneous and state-dependent elasticity, and because corporate treasurers demand T-bills as pledgeable collateral. When T-bill supply shrinks enough to drive elastic funds to a corner, remaining less-elastic funds become marginal, and supply shocks have an order-of-magnitude larger impact on T-bill rates. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the theoretical model, and the empirical specifications.
- [Banks, Low Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Wang (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/wang-banks-low-interest-rates-2025.md): Distilled: A structural model of banks as dual credit and liquidity providers shows that secular declines in nominal interest rates compress deposit spreads, tighten banks' financial constraints, and reduce long-run bank credit supply, with loan spreads rising to offset lost deposit income. Cross-sectional bank-level evidence from U.S. Call Reports (2000-2014) confirms the mechanism. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Four core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the empirical specifications.
- [Working More to Pay the Mortgage: Zator (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/zator-working-more-pay-mortgage-2025.md): Distilled: Using Polish administrative tax records linked to floating-rate mortgage payments (2005-2015), Zator shows households increase labor income by roughly PLN 0.35 for each PLN 1 rise in mortgage interest, with an asymmetric response that is two to three times stronger following payment increases than decreases. J. Finance 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating equations.
- [Carbon Returns across the Globe: Zhang (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2025/zhang-carbon-returns-globe-2025.md): Distilled: After correcting for the data release lag of carbon emissions, the brown-minus-green return (the carbon premium) turns significantly negative in the United States and insignificant globally, overturning prior findings; the apparent premium stems from forward-looking sales information embedded in emissions data rather than a true risk premium. J. Finance 2025, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and the empirical specifications.
- [An Economic View of Corporate Social Impact: Allcott, Montanari, Ozaltun & Tan (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/allcott-corporate-social-impact-2026.md): Distilled: a welfare-economics framework defines corporate social impact as the social welfare loss from a firm's exit; applied to 74 firms in 12 industries, consumer surplus dominates all other components, and ESG ratings are essentially unrelated to the resulting estimates. J. Finance 2026, open access (Wiley/AFA terms). Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and the theory tested.
- [The Benefits of Access: Becht, Franks & Wagner (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/becht-private-meetings-portfolio-firms-2026.md): Distilled: Using GPT-4 to parse 4,700 private meeting notes from a large active asset manager and its UK portfolio firms (2007-2015), the paper shows that meetings convey predominantly soft information that is associated with fund-manager trading, generates risk-adjusted outperformance of 180 bps/month for a combined FM+GS meeting portfolio, and in only 0.4% of cases involves material nonpublic information. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating specifications.
- [Adverse Selection in Corporate Loan Markets: Beyhaghi, Fracassi & Weitzner (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/beyhaghi-adverse-selection-corporate-loans-2026.md): Distilled: using confidential Federal Reserve Y-14Q supervisory data, this paper shows that more banks in a local market raises interest rates, borrower risk, and loan volume, consistent with adverse selection dominating competition effects; it also constructs a novel risk-orthogonalized markup measure and shows repeat-relationship markups and GSIB-shock evidence support the channel. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, the theory tested, and the estimating specifications.
- [Paying Too Much: Bhutta, Fuster & Hizmo (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/bhutta-mortgage-overpayment-borrower-sophistication-2026.md): Distilled: many U.S. mortgage borrowers significantly overpay relative to rates available in their market on the same day; overpayment is largest for FHA and low-FICO borrowers and rises when market interest rates are low; borrower sophistication (shopping and knowledge) strongly predicts lower rates and competition benefits sophisticated borrowers most. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the EGain model, and the key estimating specifications.
- [Going Public and the Internal Organization of the Firm: Bias, Lochner, Obernberger & Sevilir (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/bias-going-public-internal-organization-2026.md): Distilled: German IPO firms become more hierarchical and standardized organizations in the two years before and during the IPO, adding management layers, narrowing control spans, expanding administrative functions, and standardizing job profiles. Hierarchy growth is more pronounced in firms with greater human capital risk. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the theory tested, and the estimating equations.
- [Monetary Policy and Wealth Effects: Caramp & Silva (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/caramp-monetary-policy-wealth-effects-2026.md): Distilled: In a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with rare disasters and heterogeneous beliefs (D-HANK), monetary contractions raise risk premia and redistribute wealth from optimists to pessimists; the resulting time-varying precautionary motive accounts for roughly 60% of the aggregate consumption response, the wealth effect for 30%, and the standard intertemporal-substitution channel for less than 10%. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method with its defining equations.
- [What Drives Investors' Portfolio Choices: Choukhmane & de Silva (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/choukhmane-portfolio-choices-risk-preferences-2026.md): Distilled: using 401(k) default-fund quasi-experiments, Choukhmane and de Silva show that 94% of retirement investors prefer stock market participation absent frictions and estimate relative risk aversion of 2.54, EIS of 0.25, and a $156 portfolio adjustment cost. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [Asset Pricing and Risk-Sharing under DB vs DC Pensions: Coimbra, Gomes, Michaelides & Shen (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/coimbra-pension-plans-asset-pricing-2026.md): Distilled: a general equilibrium model with an explicit defined-benefit pension fund matches the historical equity premium and riskless rate better than a standard PPG model; a shift to defined-contribution plans raises the riskless rate, lowers the Sharpe ratio, increases retiree consumption volatility and decreases worker consumption volatility. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and the model equations and method.
- [Can Social Media Inform Corporate Decisions: Cookson, Niessner & Schiller (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/cookson-social-media-merger-withdrawals-2026.md): Distilled: abnormal StockTwits sentiment after a merger announcement predicts a 0.64 percentage point higher withdrawal probability (16.6% of the baseline rate), robust to market reactions, news, and analyst signals; the effect strengthens after firms register corporate Twitter accounts and is driven by fundamental rather than technical or meme tweets. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method with formal equations.
- [Dynamic Trading with Realization Utility: Dai, Qin & Wang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/dai-dynamic-trading-realization-utility-2026.md): Distilled: a jump-diffusion model with two-layered mental accounts shows that investors can optimally sell stocks at deep losses when savings are sufficient, and sell losing stocks after a price rebound when savings are low; leverage strengthens the disposition effect while leverage constraints mitigate it. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the structural model with its equations, and the solution method.
- [Default Risk and Sovereign Bond Pricing: Dittmar, Hsu, Roussellet & Simasek (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/dittmar-default-risk-sovereign-bonds-2026.md): Distilled: U.S. Treasury default risk is significantly positively related to the spread between inflation-linked swap rates and breakeven inflation (ILSBEI); the channel operates primarily through inflation dynamics upon default, not differential recovery rates; a no-arbitrage affine term structure model shows credit risk explains most of the ILSBEI differential at longer maturities outside the financial crisis. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model equations, the estimation method, and the empirical specifications.
- [FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments: Ghosh, Vallee & Zeng (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/ghosh-fintech-lending-cashless-payments-2026.md): Distilled: Borrowers' use of cashless payments improves access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts lower default probability, with outflows and information-intensive payment records showing the strongest effects. J. Finance 2026, CC BY-NC 4.0. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, the signaling model, and empirical specifications.
- [Losing Control: Griffin, Nini & Smith (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/griffin-loan-covenant-violations-decline-2026.md): Distilled: the annual share of U.S. public firms reporting a financial covenant violation fell roughly 70% from 1997 to 2019; a structural decomposition shows the drop is driven mainly by fewer false-positive violations and a lower corporate distress rate, not a deterioration in lender monitoring ability. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, and the theory tested.
- [Investment under Upstream and Downstream Uncertainty: Grigoris & Segal (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/grigoris-investment-upstream-downstream-uncertainty-2026.md): Distilled: upstream (supplier-level) uncertainty reduces firm investment, hiring, and working capital while downstream (customer-level) uncertainty has a weaker and often positive effect; the asymmetry is amplified for long time-to-build firms and scales to the macro level. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, and the theory tested.
- [Bank Monitoring with On-Site Inspections: Heitz, Martin & Ufier (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/heitz-bank-monitoring-onsite-inspections-2026.md): Distilled: Using proprietary transaction-level data on nearly 30,000 construction loans from a failed bank, this paper provides empirical evidence that banks trade off monitoring intensity with loan origination terms, use inspection report text to inform draw decisions, and that increased on-site inspections causally reduce loan default. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets, the identification strategy, and the regression specifications.
- [Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Crises: Jimenez, Kuvshinov, Peydro & Richter (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/jimenez-monetary-policy-inflation-crises-2026.md): Distilled: A U-shaped monetary policy rate path (prolonged cuts followed by hikes) substantially raises banking crisis risk across 17 countries from 1870 to 2020, via credit and asset price boom-bust cycles, with loan-level evidence from Spain confirming the credit supply channel. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical specifications, and identification strategy.
- [Institutional Investor Attention: Kwan, Liu & Matthies (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/kwan-liu-matthies-2026.md): Distilled: institutional funds shift attention to macro news when volatility rises; attention tracks holdings; attention to a stock predicts that position's value-add; attention by buying hedge funds predicts stock returns. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the theory tested, and empirical specifications.
- [Communism and Financial Markets: Laudenbach, Malmendier & Niessen-Ruenzi (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/laudenbach-communism-attitudes-2026.md): Distilled: East Germans invest less in stocks and hold more negative attitudes toward capital markets decades after reunification, with the gap explained by lasting adherence to anti-capitalist ideology shaped by personal experiences under communism. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the empirical specifications.
- [Investor Composition and Liquidity Component: Li & Yu (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/li-investor-composition-corporate-bond-liquidity-2026.md): Distilled: The loading of U.S. corporate bond credit spreads on bid-ask spreads more than doubled from 2005 to 2019 as mutual funds and ETFs grew, raising the liquidity component from roughly 10% to 30% of credit spreads. A directed-search model with heterogeneous investors and bonds shows that the inflow of short-term investors (mutual funds, ETFs) amplifies secondary-market frictions on prices via both a direct trading-frequency channel and an indirect trade-delay channel. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method with its key equations.
- [Second Chance: Di Maggio, Kalda & Yao (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/maggio-student-debt-second-chance-2026.md): Distilled: exploiting plausibly random private student debt discharge (National Collegiate paperwork loss), the paper finds debt relief reduces other debt balances and delinquency rates, and raises geographic and job mobility and income for defaulted borrowers. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating specifications with equations.
- [Deposit Inflows and Outflows in Failing Banks: Martin, Puri & Ufier (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/martin-deposit-flows-failing-banks-2026.md): Distilled: Using confidential daily account-level FDIC data from a failing U.S. bank, this paper shows that gross deposit inflows are first-order in a distressed bank's funding dynamics: deposit insurance stabilizes outflows while simultaneously enabling large insured deposit inflows that nearly offset departing uninsured funds. J. Finance 2026, U.S. Government public domain. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, and the estimating equations.
- [Carbon Pricing versus Green Finance: Pedersen (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/pedersen-carbon-pricing-green-finance-2026.md): Distilled: a unified model shows when carbon taxes and green finance (ESG investing, sustainable finance regulation) can substitute for each other and when green finance fails; the sustainable discount rate equals the normal rate plus a firm's carbon burden rate. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method with its defining equations.
- [Subtle Discrimination: Pikulina & Ferreira (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/pikulina-subtle-discrimination-2026.md): Distilled: a theoretical model of "subtle discrimination" (biased promotion decisions with plausible deniability) showing that small biases generate large gaps in skills and promotions; the direction of the skill gap reverses with career stakes. J. Finance 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, theory tested, and further applications.
- [Corporate ESG Profiles and Investor Horizons: Starks, Venkat & Zhu (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/starks-esg-profiles-investor-horizons-2026.md): Distilled: Long-term institutional investors systematically tilt their portfolios toward firms with higher ESG scores; this pattern holds at both the investor and firm level across mutual funds and 13f institutions, and survives controls for investment style, ESG rating disagreement, and errors-in-variables. J. Finance 2026, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, tested hypotheses, and the empirical specifications behind each result.
- [The Dollar during the Great Recession: Stavrakeva & Tang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jf/2026/stavrakeva-dollar-great-recession-2026.md): Distilled: U.S. forward guidance easings during the Great Recession (Dec 2008 to Sep 2012) caused the dollar to appreciate, not depreciate, against both advanced-economy and emerging-market currencies, reversing the conventional wisdom. The paper attributes this to an information channel: forward guidance signaled economic weakness, triggering a flight-to-safety effect and lower expected U.S. inflation. J. Finance 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the partial-equilibrium model, and the high-frequency local projection method.
- [Policy News and Stock Market Volatility: Baker, Bloom, Davis & Kost (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/baker-policy-news-stock-market-2026.md): Distilled: Baker, Bloom, Davis and Kost build newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) trackers that track the VIX with R-squared above 0.60 in-sample and 0.55 out-of-sample through 2023; policy news accounts for 35-55% of EMV articles; category EMV trackers combined with 10-K exposures explain cross-sectional realized volatility. Journal of Financial Economics 2026, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the tracker construction, and empirical specifications.
- [Teams and Belief Overreaction: Barahona, Cassella, Jansen & Pezone (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/barahona-teams-alleviate-exacerbate-overreaction-2026.md): Distilled: Preregistered lab experiments and US mutual fund data show that two-person teams reduce individual belief overreaction to past returns by 30 to 55 percent, with self-selection into team leadership accounting for roughly 70 percent of the lab effect. Journal of Financial Economics 176 (2026), paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the measurement framework, and the estimating equations.
- [Social Media as a Bank Run Catalyst: Cookson et al. (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/cookson-social-media-bank-run-2026.md): Distilled: Banks with greater pre-run Twitter exposure lost 4.3 percentage points more stock value during the March 2023 Silicon Valley Bank run; Twitter attention at the hourly frequency predicted lower returns for high-risk banks, while Twitter sentiment did not amplify run risks. Journal of Financial Economics 176 (2026), paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and the estimating equations.
- [Securing Technological Leadership? The Cost of Export Controls: Crosignani et al. (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/crosignani-securing-technological-leadership-cost-2026.md): Distilled: Crosignani, Han, Macchiavelli, and Silva (2026) document using hand-collected BIS Entity List data matched to FactSet Revere supply-chain linkages that U.S. export controls on Chinese firms cause broad-based decoupling from Chinese customers; affected U.S. suppliers suffer large stock market losses, declining revenues and employment, and tighter bank credit, while failing to form new customer relations domestically or in politically aligned countries. Journal of Financial Economics 2026, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, and the empirical design (stacked DiD and event study). LLM-distilled.
- [How Costly Are Cultural Biases: D'Acunto, Ghosh & Rossi (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/d-acunto-costly-cultural-biases-evidence-2026.md): Distilled: Using a P2P lending platform in India paired with a robo-advising tool, D'Acunto, Ghosh, and Rossi show that unassisted lenders discriminate against out-group (Muslim) and lower-caste (Shudra) borrowers, facing 8% higher defaults and up to 7.3 pp lower returns as a result. Robo-advising reduces both biases and improves lender-level returns by 4.5 to 7.3 pp, with biased beliefs as the dominant mechanism over taste-based discrimination. Journal of Financial Economics 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and the estimating equations.
- [Institutions' Return Expectations: Dahlquist & Ibert (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/dahlquist-institutions-return-expectations-assets-2026.md): Distilled: Institutional investors' subjective risk premia across equity, cash, and credit track objective (model-based) risk premia one-to-one and are countercyclical, but cross-sectional disagreement across institutions exceeds time-series variation and is driven mainly by heterogeneous views about long-term price-earnings ratio mean reversion. J. Fin. Econ. 2026, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the regression specifications, and the building-block decomposition of return expectations.
- [Bank Consolidation and Uniform Pricing: Granja & Paixão (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/granja-bank-consolidation-uniform-pricing-2026.md): Distilled: After bank mergers, deposit and loan rates at acquired branches converge toward the acquirer's network-wide rate because banks price uniformly across their branch networks; pre-merger rate differences between acquirer and acquired predict post-merger rate changes far better than local HHI changes; and forced branch divestitures reduce consumer welfare by about 7% in markets where the acquirer offered better deposit rates. J. Fin. Econ. 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the structural demand-and-supply model, and the empirical specifications.
- [Prospect Theory in the Field: Han, Sui & Yang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/han-prospect-theory-field-revealed-2026.md): Distilled: Funds whose past returns generate higher prospect theory value attract larger future flows, confirmed by panel regressions and account-level trading data from January 1981 to June 2022. A revealed preference analysis recovers loss aversion of 1.824 and curvature of 0.745, aligned with lab-based studies. Journal of Financial Economics 2026, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the prospect theory valuation framework, and the empirical specifications.
- [Demand Disagreement: Heyerdahl-Larsen & Illeditsch (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/heyerdahl-larsen-demand-disagreement-2026.md): Distilled: An OLG model where investors disagree about future demand for savings (driven by heterogeneous time preferences and a false consensus bias) generates stochastic yield volatility, time-varying bond risk premia, and an upward-sloping yield curve, resolving both the correlation puzzle and the disagreement correlation puzzle without relying on disagreement about macroeconomic fundamentals. Journal of Financial Economics 2026, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (equilibrium SDF and consumption share dynamics), and the method (SPF-based demand disagreement proxy + UKF estimation).
- [Implicit Extrapolation and the Beliefs Channel: Liu & Palmer (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/liu-implicit-extrapolation-beliefs-channel-2026.md): Distilled: Households extrapolate past home-price returns into investment allocations beyond what their stated expectations reveal, roughly tripling the estimated effect of past returns on investment relative to a beliefs-only channel. J. Fin. Econ. 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the Merton portfolio framework, and the main regression specifications.
- [Discount Factors and Monetary Policy: Vandeweyer, Yang & Yannelis (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/vandeweyer-discount-factors-monetary-policy-2026.md): Distilled: Exploiting dual-listed stocks in Mainland China and Hong Kong to isolate the discount factor channel of monetary policy, the paper finds that US FOMC surprises cause significant revisions in investors' risk-adjusted discount factors: a 100 bp surprise shifts the A/H share-price ratio by about 30 bp within five trading days, driven exclusively by cycle-amplifying surprises. J. Fin. Econ. 2026, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the conceptual model, and the estimating equations.
- [Policy Uncertainty Reduces Green Innovation: Wang, Wurgler & Zhang (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfe/2026/wang-policy-uncertainty-reduces-green-2026.md): Distilled: Exogenous weather-driven variability in Chinese environmental subsidy allocations reduces firms' green R&D investment and green R&D employment, with stronger effects on green-tech and subsidy-reliant firms. Journal of Financial Economics 2026, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, a mean-variance model of investment under subsidy uncertainty, and a two-stage IV specification using weather volatility as an instrument for policy uncertainty.
- [Intraday Proprietary Traders and Short-Term Mispricing: Anshuman et al. (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfm/2026/anshuman-intraday-proprietary-traders-mispricing-2026.md): Distilled: Using trader-level BSE transaction data and hand-collected Indian TV analyst recommendations, the paper shows only intraday proprietary traders trade contrarian against short-term recommendation-induced mispricing, earning informed-trading profits while bearing liquidity costs; overnight proprietary traders provide liquidity but do not exploit the mispricing. Journal of Financial Markets 2026, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, and the empirical specifications.
- [Tick Size and Market Quality: Barardehi, Dixon, Liu & Lohr (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfm/2026/barardehi-tick-size-market-quality-2026.md): Distilled: The U.S. Tick Size Pilot (TSP) harmed liquidity for stocks with quoted spreads below 10 cents but improved it for stocks with spreads above 15 cents, explaining mixed results across prior studies that pool stocks with very different prevailing spreads. Journal of Financial Markets 2026, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the DiD specification, and empirical specifications.
- [Stock Market Indexing and Option Market Conditions: Chang, Ge, Lin & Ma (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfm/2026/chang-indexing-option-market-conditions-2026.md): Distilled: Stocks at the top of the Russell 2000 Index have smaller put-call parity deviations, higher options trading volume, and narrower bid-ask spreads than similar-sized stocks at the bottom of the Russell 1000 Index, documented via the annual Russell 1000/2000 reconstitution as a regression discontinuity design (local linear regressions, 1998-2006). Journal of Financial Markets 2026, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the measure construction, and the identification approach.
- [Domestic Funds and Price Informativeness: Chen, Wu, Yang & Zhong (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfm/2026/chen-domestic-funds-price-informativeness-2026.md): Distilled: Using Chinese listed companies (2005-2019), domestic fund ownership alone has no significant effect on stock price informativeness, but incentive-weighted domestic fund ownership significantly improves it through two channels: information processing and information provision. J. Financial Markets 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets, the empirical design, and the firm-level price informativeness decomposition.
- [Geography and Hedge Fund Activism: Faleye (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfm/2026/faleye-geography-hedge-fund-activism-2026.md): Distilled: Activist hedge funds disproportionately target firms located closer to their headquarters, yet activism returns are lower for nearer targets by 1.2 percentage points per one-standard-deviation decrease in distance. Economic explanations (activism costs, target selection, employee wealth transfers) are ruled out; results are consistent with familiarity bias in targeting decisions. Journal of Financial Markets 2026, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the tested hypotheses, and the estimation specifications.
- [Dealer Competition in OTC Markets: Singer (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jfm/2026/singer-dealer-competition-otc-markets-2026.md): Distilled: A model of OTC dealer competition as a first-price sealed-bid common-value auction shows that information heterogeneity arises endogenously and generates core-periphery market structures in which better-informed core dealers quote tighter bid-ask spreads, earn higher margins, and trade more frequently. Journal of Financial Markets 2026, CC BY 4.0. Six core results with source locators and the formal model equations.
- [Ambulance Taxis: Eliason, League, Leder-Luis, McDevitt & Roberts (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2024/eliason-et-al-ambulance-taxis-impact-regulation-2024.md): Distilled: Prior authorization for Medicare ambulance rides to dialysis facilities reduced nonemergency rides by 68% and payments by 67.7%, far outperforming criminal and civil pay-and-chase litigation. Journal of Political Economy 2025 (May 2025), paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the stylized fraud-deterrence model, and the staggered difference-in-differences specifications.
- [Market Structure, Investment, and Technical Efficiencies in Mobile Telecommunications: Elliott et al. (2024)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2024/elliott-et-al-market-structure-investment-technical-2024.md): Distilled: A structural model of mobile telecommunications quantifies the trade-off between market power and scale efficiency from consolidation. Applied to the French market, consumer surplus is maximized at eight firms while total surplus peaks at four; all bilateral mergers among France's four operators decrease consumer surplus. Marginal social value of spectrum is approximately five times a firm's auction willingness to pay. Journal of Political Economy 2024, paywalled. Five core results with source locators, the full model, estimation method, and datasets used.
- [Theory of Fiscal Responsibility and Irresponsibility: Halac & Yared (2024)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2024/halac-yared-theory-fiscal-responsibility-irresponsibility-2024.md): Distilled: A political economy model in which successive deficit-biased governments facing private i.i.d. fiscal shocks endogenously cycle between a fiscally responsible regime (maximally enforced deficit limit) and a fiscally irresponsible regime (maximally enforced surplus limit), with transitions triggered by extreme shocks and only when governments' bias is large enough. Journal of Political Economy 133(5), May 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the full model, equilibrium programs, and the factorization algorithm.
- [Laws and Norms: Bénabou & Tirole (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/benabou-tirole-laws-norms-2025.md): Distilled: A unified theory of how intrinsic motivation, material incentives, and social norms jointly shape compliance and optimal public policy. Derives modified Pigou-Ramsey taxation correcting for reputational rents, and characterizes when the expressive content of law makes incentives softer or tougher than the symmetric-information optimum. Journal of Political Economy 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with proposition locators, the model equations, and the signaling-equilibrium analysis.
- [Parenting with Patience: Del Boca, Flinn, Verriest & Wiswall (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/boca-et-al-parenting-patience-parental-incentives-2025.md): Distilled: A Markov Perfect Equilibrium model of joint parent-child cognitive skill investment estimates that Conditional Cash Transfers reduce child patience by 13-17% and that intrinsic-motivation crowding-out is the primary reason parents limit their use. Journal of Political Economy 134(1), 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the parent-child dynamic game (utility, skill production, CCT design, discount factor transition), the Method of Simulated Moments estimator, and three datasets (PSID-CDS, Steinberg et al. 2009, Osaka PPS).
- [Selecting Penalty Parameters: Chetverikov & Sørensen (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/chetverikov-rensen-selecting-penalty-parameters-high-2025.md): Distilled: Chetverikov and Sørensen (2025) propose bootstrapping after cross-validation (BCV), a method for selecting the penalty parameter of l1-penalized M-estimators in high dimensions that yields valid l1 and l2 error bounds; post-BCV is the only method in simulations whose studentized estimates converge to N(0,1), and an empirical illustration confirms Fryer Jr (2019) findings on racial differences in police use of force are robust to model choice and expanded controls. J. Polit. Econ. 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the M-estimation framework, and the BCV algorithm with its defining equations.
- [Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Rodriguez-Clare, Ulate & Vasquez (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/clare-et-al-trade-nominal-rigidities-understanding-2025.md): Distilled: A dynamic quantitative trade and migration model with downward nominal wage rigidity shows that the China shock generates temporary unemployment reducing U.S. aggregate welfare gains by roughly two-thirds (from 31 to 12 basis points) and turning 18 additional states from net gainers into net losers. Journal of Political Economy 2025, CC BY 4.0 (accepted version). Eight core results with source locators, model equations, and calibration method.
- [Colluding against Workers: Delabastita & Rubens (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/delabastita-rubens-colluding-against-workers-2025.md): Distilled: proposes a new identification approach for employer collusion in labor markets using production and cost data, applied to 227 Belgian coal firms 1845-1913. The 1897 coal cartel explains the entire post-1900 surge in wage markdowns and depressed wages and employment by 6%-17% relative to pre-cartel conduct. Journal of Political Economy 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the structural model, and the method with its defining equations.
- [Asset-Price Redistribution: Fagereng et al. (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/fagereng-et-al-asset-price-redistribution-2025.md): Distilled: Rising asset valuations redistribute welfare from buyers to sellers, not from non-holders to holders. Individual welfare gains range from -$185,000 (p1) to +$273,000 (p99) in Norway 1994-2019, with redistribution from young cohorts to old and from the poor to the wealthy. Journal of Political Economy 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, the model (envelope-theorem sufficient statistic), and the empirical implementation (NPV of net asset sales weighted by price-dividend deviation).
- [Optimal Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Le Grand & Ragot (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/grand-ragot-optimal-fiscal-policy-heterogeneous-2025.md): Distilled: Le Grand and Ragot (2025) show that positive capital taxes and public debt can both be optimal in a heterogeneous-agent model when credit constraints occasionally bind and utility is non-CRRA (GHH or DRRA), overturning the Chamley-Judd zero-capital-tax result. Optimal public debt rises after a low-persistence public spending shock but falls after a high-persistence shock. Journal of Political Economy 133(7), 2025, paywalled. Six core results with source locators, the structural model equations, and the solution method.
- [Opening Up Military Innovation: Howell, Rathje, Van Reenen & Wong (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2025/howell-et-al-opening-up-military-innovation-2025.md): Distilled: Using a sharp regression discontinuity design in the U.S. Air Force SBIR program, the paper shows that Open (bottom-up, unspecified) awards increase military technology adoption by 11.4 pp, VC investment by 12 pp, and patenting by 7-9 pp, while Conventional (top-down, specified) awards have no such effects and create program lock-in. Journal of Political Economy 2025, VOR paywalled. Six core results with source locators, datasets used, and the estimating equation.
- [Revolutionary Transition: Gay, Gobbi & Goñi (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/jpe/2026/gay-et-al-revolutionary-transition-inheritance-change-2026.md): Distilled: The 1793 French inheritance reforms, which abolished impartible inheritance and imposed equal asset partition among all children, reduced completed fertility by 0.60-0.70 children per woman in affected areas, providing the first empirical support for Le Play's (1875) hypothesis that inheritance law drove France's early demographic transition. Journal of Political Economy 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical model with equations, and the estimating specifications.
- [Enlightenment Ideals and Belief in Progress: Almelhem et al. (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/almelhem-enlightenment-ideals-belief-progress-2026.md): Distilled: Using LDA topic modeling and sentiment analysis on 264,443 English volumes printed 1500-1900, this paper documents that science-language volumes secularized by the mid-eighteenth century, that those at the nexus of science and political economy became the most progress-oriented during the Enlightenment, and that industrial volumes at this nexus were the most progress-oriented from the mid-eighteenth century onward. QJE 2026, CC BY 4.0. Five core results with source locators, datasets used, the classification and sentiment methods with equations, and the estimating specifications.
- [Vanguard: Ang & Chinoy (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/ang-vanguard-black-veterans-civil-2026.md): Distilled: using random variation from the WWI draft lottery and millions of digitized military and NAACP records, Ang and Chinoy provide the first causal evidence that military service nearly tripled Black veterans' likelihood of joining the NAACP, driven by institutional discrimination rather than socioeconomic gains. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 141(1), 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the IV design, and the estimating equations.
- [Republican Support and Economic Hardship: Arteaga & Barone (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/arteaga-republican-support-economic-hardship-2026.md): Distilled: Using quasi-exogenous variation in Purdue Pharma's OxyContin cancer-market targeting, this paper establishes a causal link between opioid epidemic exposure and a 4.5 percentage-point increase in Republican House vote share by 2022, operating through economic hardship and conservative media framing. QJE 2026, paywalled. Ten core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical specification with equations, and identification strategy.
- [Ideas Have Consequences: Ash, Chen & Naidu (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/ash-ideas-have-consequences-impact-2026.md): Distilled: The Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges shifted judicial behavior: trained judges used more economics language in their opinions, voted more often against federal regulatory agencies, and imposed stricter criminal sentences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2026), CC BY-NC 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, and the DiD estimating equations.
- [Permanent Capital Losses after Banking Crises: Baron et al. (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/baron-permanent-capital-losses-banking-2026.md): Distilled: Studying 76 bank equity crises across 46 economies since 1870, this paper documents that banking crises produce large, permanent declines in bank capital driven by asset write-downs rather than temporary price dislocations, and that forceful liquidity interventions restore only a transient fraction of bank value. Historical government recapitalizations have been too small, delayed, and narrow to restore banking sector capitalization. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, and empirical specifications.
- [Digital Distractions with Peer Influence: Barwick, Chen, Fu & Li (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/barwick-digital-distractions-peer-influence-2026.md): Distilled: Mobile app usage is contagious among college roommates and causally harms academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2026, paywalled. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, the linear-in-means peer effects model, and shift-share IV identification.
- [Traditional Institutions in Modern Times: Bau, Khanna, Low & Voena (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/bau-traditional-institutions-modern-times-2026.md): Distilled: Using two new surveys on dowry property rights and a natural experiment from India's highway expansion, this paper shows that grooms' parents commonly retain dowry from migrant sons and that stronger historical dowry traditions predict higher male out-migration rates and larger migration responses to falling migration costs. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 141(1), 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets, the theoretical model, and empirical specifications.
- [Bargaining and Inequality in the Labor Market: Caldwell, Haegele & Heining (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/caldwell-bargaining-inequality-labor-market-2026.md): Distilled: A novel matched firm-worker survey linked to German administrative data documents that individual wage bargaining is pervasive (78% of workers exposed), that labor market factors predict firms' bargaining strategies better than firm productivity, that workers with better outside options negotiate more successfully, and that gender wage gaps are 3-5 percentage points larger at bargaining firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2026), paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical framework, and the estimating equations.
- [Diversifying Society's Leaders: Chetty, Deming & Friedman (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/chetty-diversifying-society-leaders-determinants-2026.md): Distilled: Using anonymized admissions data linked to federal tax records, Chetty, Deming, and Friedman show that top-0.1% income families are 2.5x more likely than middle-class applicants to gain admission to Ivy-Plus colleges with identical test scores, driven by legacy preferences (46%), nonacademic credentials (31%), and athletic recruitment (24%), none of which predict postcollege success. Attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of an average flagship public college causally increases the probability of reaching the top 1% of earnings by 5 pp and triples chances of working at an elite firm. Quarterly Journal of Economics 141(1), 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the statistical model, and both research designs. LLM-distilled; not human-verified.
- [Failing Banks: Correia, Luck & Verner (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/correia-failing-banks-2026.md): Distilled: Using a new panel covering 37,000 US commercial banks from 1863 to 2024, Correia, Luck, and Verner show that bank failures across the full history of the US banking system are strongly predicted by deteriorating fundamentals, that failures with bank runs are as predictable as other failures, and that most pre-FDIC failures involved fundamentally insolvent banks. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2026, public domain (US Government employee work). Nine core results with source locators, datasets, the insolvency condition, and the failure prediction specification.
- [The Price of Housing in the United States: Lyons, Shertzer, Gray & Agorastos (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/lyons-price-housing-united-states-2026.md): Distilled: Lyons, Shertzer, Gray, and Agorastos construct the first annual market rent and home sales price series for 30 U.S. cities over 1890-2006 from 2.7 million newspaper real estate listings. Real rents rose 60% rather than fell over the postwar period; real sales prices reached four times their 1890 level by 2006; and the average annual real return to housing was 9% (rental 7.7%, capital gain 1.3%). Q.J. Econ. 2026, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the rolling-window hedonic method with its equations, and the user cost framework.
- [Dollar Dominance and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: McLeay & Tenreyro (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/mcleay-dollar-dominance-transmission-monetary-2026.md): Distilled: The MCP model shows monetary easing can still strongly boost exports even under dollar pricing, with export quantities rising 0.95% vs. only 0.14% in sticky-price DCP models, because the binding constraint is supply capacity not demand. Panel evidence from 37 emerging economies and case studies of Canada, Chile, and three large Latin American devaluations confirm significant export responses to monetary-policy-induced exchange rate changes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2026, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the model, and the method.
- [Marginal Returns to Public Universities: Mountjoy (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/mountjoy-marginal-returns-public-universities-2026.md): Distilled: Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design across hundreds of SAT/ACT admission cutoffs at all 35 Texas public universities, this paper establishes that marginal admission raises four-year credits by one year, BA completion by 12 percentage points, and earnings by 8.6%; internal rates of return are 26% for students and 16% for society. QJE 2026, CC BY 4.0. Nine core results with source locators, datasets used, the RD design with equations, and the intensive/extensive margin bounding method.
- [Who's Afraid of the Minimum Wage?: Rao & Risch (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/rao-afraid-minimum-wage-measuring-2026.md): Distilled: Using matched IRS administrative tax records for roughly 271,000 independent U.S. businesses over 2010-2019 and a stacked difference-in-differences design on 19 state minimum wage changes, Rao and Risch find that firms in highly exposed industries do not lay off workers but modestly reduce part-time hiring, fully finance higher wage costs through revenue growth, and leave owner profits unchanged; firm entry falls roughly 2% and individual low earners gain earnings with stable employment rates. QJE 2026, CC BY 4.0. Eight core results with source locators, datasets, and the estimating equations.
- [Political Foundations of Racial Violence: Testa & Williams (2026)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/qje/2026/testa-political-foundations-racial-violence-2026.md): Distilled: Using a regression discontinuity design on close presidential elections in the post-Reconstruction South (1880-1900), Testa and Williams show that a narrow Democratic county loss raised Black lynching probability by roughly 10 percentage points, while Democratic-aligned newspapers amplified anti-Black crime narratives after those losses, foreshadowing the vote-suppression machinery of Jim Crow. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2026, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and estimating equations.
- [Financing Infrastructure in the Shadow of Expropriation: Acharya, Parlatore & Sundaresan (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/acharya-financing-infrastructure-shadow-expropriation-2025.md): Distilled: A theory of optimal infrastructure financing under double moral hazard (private-sector operator shirking and government expropriation of project returns). The second-best contract features government guarantees to financiers, government coinvestment, development rights, and tax subsidies, matching observed practice in public-private partnerships. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, the model equations, and the method.
- [Build or Buy? Human Capital and Corporate Diversification: Beaumont, Hebert & Lyonnet (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/beaumont-build-buy-human-capital-2025.md): Distilled: Using French administrative data, this paper shows that firms enter distant sectors by acquisition (buy) rather than organically (build) because building human capital in distant sectors requires costly organizational integration of new workers. Review of Financial Studies 2025, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification design (shift-share IV), and the estimating equations.
- [Bail-Ins, Optimal Regulation, and Crisis Resolution: Clayton & Schaab (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/clayton-bail-ins-optimal-regulation-2025.md): Distilled: In a tractable three-period dynamic contracting model with fire-sale externalities, the privately optimal bank contract combines short-term standard debt and long-term bail-in debt; the social optimum calls for joint regulation of both the level and composition of debt, rationalizing a leverage cap plus a TLAC requirement that can be satisfied with bail-in debt. Bail-ins replace bailouts as a recapitalization tool even without planner commitment. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Five core results with source locators, the model, and its key propositions with equations.
- [Uncertainty, Contracting, and Beliefs in Organizations: Dicks & Fulghieri (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/dicks-uncertainty-contracting-beliefs-organizations-2025.md): Distilled: In a multidivisional firm, uncertainty aversion by managers creates endogenous disagreement that raises incentive costs; HQ can hedge this by designing contracts with cross-divisional exposure (equity or relative-performance pay), improving effort and aligning beliefs. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Five core results with source locators, the model with its key equations, and the method.
- [Investor Memory: Godker, Jiao & Smeets (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/godker-investor-memory-2025.md): Distilled: Three lab and online experiments document a positive memory bias in investment outcomes: subjects overremember gains and underremember losses, which translates into overly optimistic beliefs, excess reinvestment, and overconfidence about stock-picking ability. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the experimental model, and the estimating specifications.
- [Effects of Credit Expansions on Stock Market Booms and Busts: Hansman, Hong, Jiang, Liu & Meng (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/hansman-effects-credit-expansions-stock-2025.md): Distilled: Using China's staggered margin-lending deregulation (2010-2015) as a natural experiment, the paper finds causal evidence that credit expansions substantially raise stock prices, with the effect largely anticipated and front-run by unconstrained institutional investors. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the dynamic information-revelation model, and the empirical specifications (event study, RDD, panel regression).
- [Proof-of-Work versus Proof-of-Stake: John, Rivera & Saleh (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/john-proof-work-versus-proof-2025.md): Distilled: John, Rivera, and Saleh develop an equilibrium model showing that Proof-of-Stake blockchains generate higher security than equivalent Proof-of-Work blockchains under real-world parameter values, and that this advantage is particularly salient at high scale. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, the model equations, and the method.
- [Unmasking Mutual Fund Derivative Use: Kaniel & Wang (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/kaniel-unmasking-mutual-fund-derivative-2025.md): Distilled: Using SEC Form N-PORT data, this paper shows that most mutual funds (59%) use derivatives to amplify, not hedge, equity returns, contrary to prior belief. Five derivative strategy clusters are identified via K-Means Clustering; long index users dominate and underperform nonusers despite attracting abnormally high institutional flows. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the method, and empirical specifications.
- [How to Dominate the Historical Average: Li, Li, Lyu & Yu (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/li-dominate-historical-average-2025.md): Distilled: Proposes a conservative-slope forecast for the equity premium that sets the predictive slope to a small positive constant (1/A), reducing bias relative to the historical average while matching its zero estimation variance, and proves ex ante that this forecast first-order stochastically dominates the historical average whenever the population predictive slope is nonzero. Review of Financial Studies 2025, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, the theoretical framework, and the empirical method.
- [Real Effects of Centralized Markets: Martin (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/martin-real-effects-centralized-markets-2025.md): Distilled: Using staggered NYMEX steel futures introductions (2008, 2012) as natural experiments in a difference-in-differences framework, this paper finds that centralizing derivative markets reduces price dispersion in the physical product market by 6 pp (CV), lowers product prices by 3-4%, increases producer hedging, shifts market share toward low-cost firms, and reduces producer operating profits by 1.6-1.9 pp. Review of Financial Studies 2025, CC BY 4.0. Seven core results with source locators, datasets used, hypotheses, and the empirical specifications.
- [Social Connectedness in Bank Lending: Rehbein & Rother (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/rehbein-social-connectedness-bank-lending-2025.md): Distilled: Using Facebook's Social Connectedness Index, Rehbein and Rother show that bank lending volumes, borrower-friendly loan terms, and bank profitability all increase with social connectedness between bank and borrower counties, while fintech lending is unaffected. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the empirical model, and three formal specifications.
- [Financial Consequences of Pretrial Detention: Slutzky & Xu (2025)](https://instituteforautomatedresearch.org/wiki/papers/rfs/2025/slutzky-financial-consequences-pretrial-detention-2025.md): Distilled: Using quasi-random assignment of court commissioners in Maryland as an instrument, this paper finds that pretrial detention causally raises household insolvency rates, driven by chapter 7 bankruptcy, judgment liens, and foreclosures in areas of declining house prices, with effects spilling over to family members rather than defendants themselves. Review of Financial Studies 2025, paywalled. Eight core results with source locators, datasets used, the identification strategy, and the estimating equations.