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Location Sorting and Endogenous Amenities: Almagro & Dominguez-Iino (2025)

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paper-summaryurban-economicsresidential-sortinghousing-marketsshort-term-rentalsurban-inequalityendogenous-amenitiesstructuraldiscrete-choicepanel-regressioninstrumental-variablesopen-accesspeer-reviewedunreplicateddata:cbs-netherlandsdata:inside-airbnbdata:amsterdam-city-data

What this is. The paper’s core results, the structural equilibrium model (endogenous amenities + dynamic location choice), and the estimation equations: enough to understand what was found and how, without reading all 41 pages. To replicate or extend, read the full source at the original.

The paper builds and estimates a dynamic spatial equilibrium model of Amsterdam in which heterogeneous households make forward-looking residential choices and firms endogenously supply consumption amenities (restaurants, bars, nurseries, touristic venues, food and non-food stores) in response to the neighborhood’s demographic composition. Using restricted Dutch administrative microdata (CBS) linked to neighborhood amenity counts (ACD BBGA) and short-term rental listings (Inside Airbnb), and exploiting tourist inflows as a demand shifter via a shift-share instrument, the paper shows: (1) short-term rental (STR) penetration raises rents 0.09-0.21% per 1% growth in listings (IV); (2) tourist presence increases touristic amenities and restaurants but leaves nurseries unchanged; (3) preference heterogeneity across household types increases residential sorting but reduces welfare inequality relative to the homogeneous-preference benchmark, because neighborhoods become horizontally differentiated; and (4) STR entry produces winner-loser welfare splits by household type once amenity adjustment is allowed: the highest-income group (Older Families) loses 4% of income while lower-income Singles and Younger Families gain 1-2%. The paper extends prior work by Guerrieri, Hartley, and Hurst (2013) and Diamond (2016) by microfounding how different amenity types respond to demographic heterogeneity.

The reduced-form STR estimates build on the shift-share housing-market evidence of Barron, Kung, and Proserpio (2021). Local housing-demand estimation also builds on the ECCP and linear-IV methods of Kalouptsidi, Scott, and Souza-Rodrigues (2021b).

Magnitudes and significance are as reported; \* = 5%, \*\* = 1%. Locators point into the source PDF.

#ResultLocatorMagnitude
R1STR penetration raises neighborhood rents (IV); OLS is downward-biased, consistent with tourist-attractive areas becoming locally less attractive to residentsTable I, p.1038IV (full controls + district-year FE): coeff = 0.205 (SE 0.093), F = 69.66; OLS = 0.109 (SE 0.018); range across specs: 0.091-0.205
R2STR penetration raises house sale prices (IV); OLS severely underestimates the price effectTable I, p.1038IV (full controls + district-year FE): coeff = 0.326 (SE 0.102), F = 65.9; OLS = 0.037 (SE 0.022); range: 0.149-0.326
R3Tourist presence drives supply of touristic amenities but not nurseries; supply responses are sectorally differentiated by the demographic type driving demandTable III, p.1054; text p.105310% more tourists: +2.3% touristic amenities, +0.5% restaurants, +2.3% bars, +0.9% food stores, +2.9% non-food stores, 0% nurseries
R4Heterogeneous preferences increase residential sorting but reduce welfare inequality relative to the homogeneous benchmark; horizontal neighborhood differentiation is the mechanismFigure 9, p.1064; Table VII, p.1065Entropy index: 0.8 (heterogeneous) vs 0.4 (homogeneous); welfare gap (max/min consumer surplus): about 2 (heterogeneous) vs about 10 (homogeneous); Gini indices rise for 5 of 6 amenity sectors under heterogeneous preferences
R5STR entry produces welfare gains for younger/lower-income households and losses for older/higher-income households once amenity endogeneity is accounted for; direction reverses vs the exogenous-amenity benchmarkFigure 10, p.1066Older Families: -4% income CE loss; Singles: +1-2% CE gain; Younger Families: +1-2% CE gain; under exogenous amenities all lose 1-2% (dark bars in Figure 10)
R6Tourism and STR activity expanded in AmsterdamFigure 1, p.1037; text pp.1032-1033Overnight stays rose from 8 million in 2008 to nearly 16 million in 2017; STR listings grew from zero to over 25,000, including about 7,000 commercial listings in 2017
R7Local-oriented nurseries declined as tourism-oriented amenities spreadFigure 4, p.1040Nurseries declined in 58% of neighborhoods, with a median decline of 32% between 2011 and 2017
R8Local households have heterogeneous amenity preferences in the dynamic location-choice estimatesTable IV, p.1059; text p.1060Log-rent coefficients: Older Families -10.886 (SE 1.205), Singles -2.310 (0.999), Younger Families -1.964 (1.028); nursery coefficients: 1.631 (0.173), 0.044 (0.143), 0.246 (0.147); WTP for 1% more nurseries is about 0.14% rent for family groups and 0.02% for Singles
R9Tourists prefer lower-price neighborhoods with more touristic amenities and fewer nurseriesTable V, p.1061; text p.1060Baseline coefficients: log price -2.723 (SE 0.819), log touristic amenities 1.008 (0.377), log nurseries -0.233 (0.137); with review controls: -2.659 (0.759), 0.837 (0.394), -0.229 (0.136); N=371 and 370; R²=0.529 and 0.537
R10IV estimates indicate landlords shift housing toward short-term rentals as their relative price rises; the preferred two-way-FE estimate is impreciseTable VI, p.1062; text p.1062Price-gap coefficient: OLS 0.242 (SE 0.099); IV 0.287 (0.086), 0.309 (0.091), and preferred two-way FE IV 0.385 (0.639); preferred first-stage F=3.24; 275 observations; the preferred estimate implies a 1-SD (29%) price-gap increase raises relative STR market share by 13.6%
R11Amenity-supply estimates are stable to precinct-year fixed effects, a check on the tenancy-stock instrumentsText p.1053 (Supplemental Appendix A.7.2)Adding precinct-year fixed effects does not significantly change the Table III estimates; the paper presents this as suggestive evidence that the instruments are uncorrelated with unobserved firm costs
R12The estimated equilibrium reproduces most observed rent, STR-price, and amenity variationFigures 7-8, p.1063; text p.1063Simulated-to-observed slopes are not statistically different from 1 except for food and non-food stores
R13Heterogeneous preferences spatially concentrate five of six amenity sectorsTable VII, p.1065Heterogeneous-minus-homogeneous Gini: touristic amenities 0.02, restaurants 0.13, bars 0.08, food stores 0.26, non-food stores 0.14, nurseries -0.10
R14Housing and amenity taxes have different welfare incidenceFigure 12, p.1068; text pp.1067-1068Welfare rises monotonically for all groups as STR tax increases; with a touristic-amenity tax, Older Families gain while Singles and Younger Families lose

Overall (paper’s conclusion). Two-way heterogeneity, in household preferences and in amenity supply responses, determines both the degree of horizontal differentiation across neighborhoods and the distributional incidence of urban policies. Low-income households may gain rather than lose from STR entry if the amenities tourists bring align with their preferences, reversing naive predictions based on rent effects alone. The amenity channel matters for incidence qualitatively, not just quantitatively.

The paper models Amsterdam as a stationary spatial equilibrium with local households, tourists, landlords, and firms supplying differentiated consumption amenities. Local residents choose locations dynamically; landlords allocate housing between long-term and short-term rental; and firm entry makes amenities respond to the demographic mix. Equations (1)-(22) define the model in Sections 4.1-4.4 (pp.1042-1048).

The population composition and amenity vector in location jj at time tt are defined in equations (1)-(2), p.1042:

Mjt≡[Mjt1,…,MjtK,MjtT]′,(1)M_{jt} \equiv [M^1_{jt}, \ldots, M^K_{jt}, M^T_{jt}]', \tag{1} ajt≡[N1jt,…,NSjt]′.(2)a_{jt} \equiv [N_{1jt}, \ldots, N_{Sjt}]'. \tag{2}

Here MjtkM^k_{jt} is the number of households of type kk, including tourists TT, and NsjtN_{sjt} is the number of varieties in amenity sector ss. Households have Cobb-Douglas spending across sectors and CES demand across varieties. The individual and aggregate demand equations (3)-(4), p.1042-1043, are:

qisjtk=αskϕkwtkpisjt(pisjtPsjt)1−σs,Psjt=(∑i=1Nsjtpisjt1−σs)11−σs,(3)q^k_{isjt} = \frac{\alpha^k_s \phi^k w^k_t}{p_{isjt}}\left(\frac{p_{isjt}}{P_{sjt}}\right)^{1-\sigma_s}, \qquad P_{sjt} = \left(\sum_{i=1}^{N_{sjt}}p_{isjt}^{1-\sigma_s}\right)^{\frac{1}{1-\sigma_s}}, \tag{3} qisjt=∑kqisjtkMjtk.(4)q_{isjt} = \sum_k q^k_{isjt}M^k_{jt}. \tag{4}

With identical marginal costs within a sector-location, monopolistic competition implies common prices and quantities, equation (5), and free entry imposes the zero-profit condition in equation (6), both p.1043:

pisjt=csjt1−1σs∀i∈sjt⟹pisjt=psjt,  qisjt=qsjt∀i∈sjt.(5)p_{isjt}=\frac{c_{sjt}}{1-\frac{1}{\sigma_s}}\quad \forall i\in sjt \quad \Longrightarrow \quad p_{isjt}=p_{sjt},\;q_{isjt}=q_{sjt}\quad \forall i\in sjt. \tag{5} (psjt−csjt)qsjt=Fsjt(Njt),Njt=∑sNsjt.(6)(p_{sjt}-c_{sjt})q_{sjt}=F_{sjt}(N_{jt}), \qquad N_{jt}=\sum_s N_{sjt}. \tag{6}

The zero-profit condition delivers the equilibrium amenity count in equation (7), and the resulting population-to-amenities mapping in equation (8), p.1043:

Nsjt=1σsFsjt∑kαskϕkwtkMjtk.(7)N_{sjt}=\frac{1}{\sigma_sF_{sjt}}\sum_k\alpha^k_s\phi^kw^k_tM^k_{jt}. \tag{7} ajt=A(Mjt).(8)a_{jt}=\mathcal{A}(M_{jt}). \tag{8}

The inelastic housing stock is allocated across long-term and short-term rental by landlords facing Type I extreme-value shocks. Equations (9)-(10), p.1044, give the supply shares:

HjtLT,S(rjt,pjt)=exp⁡(αrjt)exp⁡(αrjt)+exp⁡(αpjt−κjt)Hjt.(9)\mathcal{H}^{LT,S}_{jt}(r_{jt},p_{jt})=\frac{\exp(\alpha r_{jt})}{\exp(\alpha r_{jt})+\exp(\alpha p_{jt}-\kappa_{jt})}\mathcal{H}_{jt}. \tag{9} HjtST,S(rjt,pjt)=Hjt−HjtLT,S(rjt,pjt).(10)\mathcal{H}^{ST,S}_{jt}(r_{jt},p_{jt})=\mathcal{H}_{jt}-\mathcal{H}^{LT,S}_{jt}(r_{jt},p_{jt}). \tag{10}

Local households pay a fixed and distance-related cost when moving; tenure rises with continued residence and resets after a move. Their flow utility and dynamic value function are given in equation (11) and the Bellman equation immediately following it, p.1045:

MCk(jit,jit−1)={0if jit=jit−1,m0k+m1kdist⁡(jit,jit−1)if jit≠jit−1,  jit,jit−1≠0,m2kif jit≠jit−1 and jit=0 or jit−1=0,τit={min⁡{τit−1+1,τˉ}if jit=jit−1,1otherwise.MC^k(j_{it},j_{it-1})=\begin{cases}0 & \text{if }j_{it}=j_{it-1},\\ m^k_0+m^k_1\operatorname{dist}(j_{it},j_{it-1}) & \text{if }j_{it}\ne j_{it-1},\;j_{it},j_{it-1}\ne0,\\ m^k_2 & \text{if }j_{it}\ne j_{it-1}\text{ and }j_{it}=0\text{ or }j_{it-1}=0,\end{cases} \qquad \tau_{it}=\begin{cases}\min\{\tau_{it-1}+1,\bar{\tau}\} & \text{if }j_{it}=j_{it-1},\\1 & \text{otherwise.}\end{cases} utk(j,xit)=uˉtk(j)+δτklog⁡τit−MCk(j,jit−1).(11)u^k_t(j,x_{it})=\bar{u}^k_t(j)+\delta^k_{\tau}\log\tau_{it}-MC^k(j,j_{it-1}). \tag{11}

The household value function satisfies the Bellman equation immediately following (11), p.1045:

Vtk(xit,ϵit)=max⁡j∈{0,1,…,J}{utk(j,xit)+ϵijt+βEt[Vt+1k(xit+1,ϵit+1)∣j,xit,ϵit]}.V^k_t(x_{it},\epsilon_{it})=\max_{j\in\{0,1,\ldots,J\}}\left\{u^k_t(j,x_{it})+\epsilon_{ijt}+\beta\mathbb{E}_t[V^k_{t+1}(x_{it+1},\epsilon_{it+1})\mid j,x_{it},\epsilon_{it}]\right\}.

The logit choice probability under Type I extreme-value shocks is equation (12), p.1045:

Ptk(j∣xit)=exp⁡(utk(j,xit)+βEt[Vt+1k(xit+1,ϵit+1)∣j,xit,ϵit])∑j′exp⁡(utk(j′,xit)+βEt[Vt+1k(xit+1,ϵit+1)∣j′,xit,ϵit]).(12)P^k_t(j\mid x_{it})=\frac{\exp\left(u^k_t(j,x_{it})+\beta\mathbb{E}_t[V^k_{t+1}(x_{it+1},\epsilon_{it+1})\mid j,x_{it},\epsilon_{it}]\right)}{\sum_{j'}\exp\left(u^k_t(j',x_{it})+\beta\mathbb{E}_t[V^k_{t+1}(x_{it+1},\epsilon_{it+1})\mid j',x_{it},\epsilon_{it}]\right)}. \tag{12}

Conditional choice probabilities update the population distribution over locations and tenure by equation (13), p.1045-1046; equation (14) converts that distribution to local household counts, p.1046:

πtk(j,τ)={∑τ′∑j′≠jPtk(j∣j′,τ′)πt−1k(j′,τ′)τ=1,Ptk(j∣j,τ−1)πt−1k(j,τ−1)τ∈[2,τˉ),Ptk(j∣j,τˉ−1)πt−1k(j,τˉ−1)+Ptk(j∣j,τˉ)πt−1k(j,τˉ)τ=τˉ.(13)\pi^k_t(j,\tau)=\begin{cases}\sum_{\tau'}\sum_{j'\ne j}P^k_t(j\mid j',\tau')\pi^k_{t-1}(j',\tau') & \tau=1,\\P^k_t(j\mid j,\tau-1)\pi^k_{t-1}(j,\tau-1) & \tau\in[2,\bar{\tau}),\\P^k_t(j\mid j,\bar{\tau}-1)\pi^k_{t-1}(j,\bar{\tau}-1)+P^k_t(j\mid j,\bar{\tau})\pi^k_{t-1}(j,\bar{\tau}) & \tau=\bar{\tau}.\end{cases} \tag{13} Mjtk(rt,at)=∑τπtk(j,τ)Mtk,k∈{1,…,K}.(14)M^k_{jt}(r_t,a_t)=\sum_{\tau}\pi^k_t(j,\tau)M^k_t, \qquad k\in\{1,\ldots,K\}. \tag{14}

Type-kk households spend a share 1−ϕk1-\phi^k of income on housing. The resulting floor-space consumption and long-term housing demand in equation (15), p.1046, are:

fjtk=(1−ϕk)wtkrjt,HjtLT,D(rt,at)=∑k=1KMjtk(rt,at)fjtk.(15)f^k_{jt}=\frac{(1-\phi^k)w^k_t}{r_{jt}}, \qquad \mathcal{H}^{LT,D}_{jt}(r_t,a_t)=\sum_{k=1}^K M^k_{jt}(r_t,a_t)f^k_{jt}. \tag{15}

Tourists choose between STRs and hotels. Their STR utility and logit demand are equations (16)-(17), p.1046:

ujtST=δjST+δtST+δpSTlog⁡pjt+δaSTlog⁡ajt+ξjtST.(16)u^{ST}_{jt}=\delta^{ST}_j+\delta^{ST}_t+\delta^{ST}_p\log p_{jt}+\delta^{ST}_a\log a_{jt}+\xi^{ST}_{jt}. \tag{16} MjtST(pt,at)=exp⁡(ujtST)∑j′=0Jexp⁡(uj′tST)MtT.(17)M^{ST}_{jt}(p_t,a_t)=\frac{\exp(u^{ST}_{jt})}{\sum_{j'=0}^{J}\exp(u^{ST}_{j't})}M^T_t. \tag{17}

Hotel demand is the residual of total tourist arrivals after STR demand; hotel guests are allocated across locations in proportion to hotel-bed shares. Total tourists in location jj are therefore equation (18), p.1047. STR housing demand in floor-space units is equation (19), p.1047:

MtH(pt,at)=MtT−∑j=1JMjtST(pt,at),MjtH(pt,at)=sjtbedsMtH(pt,at),MjtT(pt,at)=MjtST(pt,at)+MjtH(pt,at).(18)M^H_t(p_t,a_t)=M^T_t-\sum_{j=1}^{J}M^{ST}_{jt}(p_t,a_t), \qquad M^H_{jt}(p_t,a_t)=s^{beds}_{jt}M^H_t(p_t,a_t), \qquad M^T_{jt}(p_t,a_t)=M^{ST}_{jt}(p_t,a_t)+M^H_{jt}(p_t,a_t). \tag{18} HjtST,D(pt,at)=MjtST(pt,at)fjt.(19)\mathcal{H}^{ST,D}_{jt}(p_t,a_t)=M^{ST}_{jt}(p_t,a_t)f_{jt}. \tag{19}

The stationary population law of motion, stationary distribution, and stationary local counts are equations (20)-(22), pp.1047-1048:

πtk=Πtk(rt,at)πt−1k.(20)\pi^k_t=\Pi^k_t(r_t,a_t)\pi^k_{t-1}. \tag{20} πk(r,a)=Πk(r,a)πk(r,a).(21)\pi^k(r,a)=\Pi^k(r,a)\pi^k(r,a). \tag{21} Mjk(r,a)=∑τπk(r,a)[j,τ]Mk,k∈{1,…,K}.(22)M^k_j(r,a)=\sum_{\tau}\pi^k(r,a)_{[j,\tau]}M^k, \qquad k\in\{1,\ldots,K\}. \tag{22}

A stationary equilibrium jointly determines long-term rents rr, STR prices pp, amenities aa, stationary local distributions πk\pi^k, and tourist STR populations MSTM^{ST}. For each location, long-term and short-term housing markets clear and amenities satisfy the mapping in (8). The conditions in the stationary-equilibrium definition, pp.1048-1049, are:

HjLT,S(rj,pj)=∑k=1KMjk(r,a)fjk,HjST,S(rj,pj)=MjST(p,a)fj,aj=A(Mj),∀j.\mathcal{H}^{LT,S}_j(r_j,p_j)=\sum_{k=1}^{K}M^k_j(r,a)f^k_j, \qquad \mathcal{H}^{ST,S}_j(r_j,p_j)=M^{ST}_j(p,a)f_j, \qquad a_j=\mathcal{A}(M_j),\quad \forall j.

The paper selects the equilibrium by initializing its solver at observed rents and amenities; it reports local uniqueness under that selection rule in Supplemental Appendix A.4.2.

The empirical design combines a reduced-form shift-share IV for STR effects on housing prices with a structural spatial-equilibrium model. The amenity-supply block uses GMM with tenancy-stock demand shifters; local housing demand is estimated with the Euler Equation in Conditional Choice Probabilities (ECCP); tourist demand is estimated with location-choice logit; and landlords’ relative LT/ST supply response is estimated by IV. The numbered estimating equations (23)-(29) appear in Sections 5.2-5.3, pp.1051-1057.

Amenity supply. Rewriting the free-entry condition in logs gives equation (23), and parameterizing operating cost produces the main estimating equation (24), both p.1051:

log⁡Nsjt=−log⁡Fsjt(Njt)+log⁡(∑kβskXjtk),Xjtk=ϕkwtkMjtk,βsk=αskσs.(23)\log N_{sjt}=-\log F_{sjt}(N_{jt})+\log\left(\sum_k\beta^k_sX^k_{jt}\right), \qquad X^k_{jt}=\phi^kw^k_tM^k_{jt},\quad \beta^k_s=\frac{\alpha^k_s}{\sigma_s}. \tag{23} Fsjt(Njt)=ΛjΛtR(Njt)Ωsjt,R(Njt)=Njtη,F_{sjt}(N_{jt})=\Lambda_j\Lambda_tR(N_{jt})\Omega_{sjt},\qquad R(N_{jt})=N_{jt}^{\eta}, log⁡Nsjt=λj+λt−ηlog⁡Njt+log⁡(∑kβskXjtk)+ωsjt.(24)\log N_{sjt}=\lambda_j+\lambda_t-\eta\log N_{jt}+\log\left(\sum_k\beta^k_sX^k_{jt}\right)+\omega_{sjt}. \tag{24}

The demand shifter and exclusion restriction used for identification are equation (25), p.1052:

Zjtk=wtkSjtγ(k),E[Zjtkωsjt∣λj,λt]=0.(25)Z^k_{jt}=w^k_tS^{\gamma(k)}_{jt}, \qquad \mathbb{E}[Z^k_{jt}\omega_{sjt}\mid\lambda_j,\lambda_t]=0. \tag{25}

The six sector equations are jointly estimated by constrained GMM, imposing βsk≥0\beta^k_s\geq0. Stacked sector instruments and moment residuals form the p.1053 objective:

max⁡λj,λt,βskg^(λj,λt,βsk)sjt′W^g^(λj,λt,βsk)sjt,s.t. βsk≥0  ∀s,k,W^=(ZsjtZsjt′)−1.\max_{\lambda_j,\lambda_t,\beta^k_s}\widehat{g}(\lambda_j,\lambda_t,\beta^k_s)'_{sjt}\widehat{W}\widehat{g}(\lambda_j,\lambda_t,\beta^k_s)_{sjt}, \qquad \text{s.t. }\beta^k_s\geq0\;\forall s,k, \qquad \widehat{W}=(Z_{sjt}Z'_{sjt})^{-1}.

Instruments are interacted with sector indicators; location and year effects are included. The sample is a three-way panel of 22 Amsterdam districts, 2008-2018; standard errors use a Bayesian bootstrap with random Dirichlet weights over 500 draws (Table III note, p.1054). The paper calibrates η=1.52\eta=1.52 and reports that adding precinct-year fixed effects does not significantly change estimates (text p.1053; Supplemental Appendix A.7.2).

Local housing demand (ECCP). The two-step ECCP estimator uses renewal actions to cancel continuation values. Its path log-likelihood outcome and regression equation are equation (26), p.1056:

Yt,j,j′,j~,xtk=utk(j,xt)−utk(j′,xt)+β[utk(j,xt+1)−utk(j′,xt+1′)]+ν~t,j,j′,j~,xtk,Y^k_{t,j,j',\tilde{j},x_t}=u^k_t(j,x_t)-u^k_t(j',x_t)+\beta\left[u^k_t(j,x_{t+1})-u^k_t(j',x'_{t+1})\right]+\tilde{\nu}^k_{t,j,j',\tilde{j},x_t}, Yt,j,j′,j~,xtk≡log⁡Ptk(j∣xt)Ptk(j′∣xt)+βlog⁡Pt+1k(j~∣xt+1)Pt+1k(j~∣xt+1′).(26)Y^k_{t,j,j',\tilde{j},x_t}\equiv\log\frac{P^k_t(j\mid x_t)}{P^k_t(j'\mid x_t)}+\beta\log\frac{P^k_{t+1}(\tilde{j}\mid x_{t+1})}{P^k_{t+1}(\tilde{j}\mid x'_{t+1})}. \tag{26}

Type-specific flow utility, equation (27), and the relation between amenity preferences and direct consumption plus spillovers, equation (28), are given on pp.1056-1057:

uˉtk(j)=δjk+δtk+δrklog⁡rjt+δaklog⁡ajt+δbklog⁡bjt+ξjtk,j≠0.(27)\bar{u}^k_t(j)=\delta^k_j+\delta^k_t+\delta^k_r\log r_{jt}+\delta^k_a\log a_{jt}+\delta^k_b\log b_{jt}+\xi^k_{jt},\qquad j\ne0. \tag{27} δsk=αsk(ϕkσs−1)+γskσϵk.(28)\delta^k_s=\frac{\alpha^k_s\left(\frac{\phi^k}{\sigma_s-1}\right)+\gamma^k_s}{\sigma^k_{\epsilon}}. \tag{28}

Setting j′=0j'=0 and normalizing outside-option utility to zero gives the estimating equation (29), p.1057:

Yt,j,j~,xitk=δjk+δtk+δrklog⁡rjt+δaklog⁡ajt+δbklog⁡bjt+δτkΔτit−ΔMCitk+ξ~t,j,xitk.(29)Y^k_{t,j,\tilde{j},x_{it}}=\delta^k_j+\delta^k_t+\delta^k_r\log r_{jt}+\delta^k_a\log a_{jt}+\delta^k_b\log b_{jt}+\delta^k_{\tau}\Delta\tau_{it}-\Delta MC^k_{it}+\tilde{\xi}^k_{t,j,x_{it}}. \tag{29}

Here Δτit=τ′(j,xit)−τ′(0,xit)\Delta\tau_{it}=\tau'(j,x_{it})-\tau'(0,x_{it}) and ΔMCitk=MCk(j,jit−1)−MCk(0,jit−1)−β[MCk(j~,j)−MCk(j~,0)]\Delta MC^k_{it}=MC^k(j,j_{it-1})-MC^k(0,j_{it-1})-\beta[MC^k(\tilde{j},j)-MC^k(\tilde{j},0)]. The first step estimates conditional choice probabilities using multinomial logit; the second estimates the flow-payoff parameters by two-step optimal GMM. The paper uses seven instruments for rents and amenities, location and time fixed effects, 22 districts, years 2008-2018, and 233,772 renewal-path observations for each of the three market-driven household types. Two-step efficient GMM standard errors are reported in Table IV (p.1059); the reported first-stage F-statistic is 169.8 (text p.1059).

Reduced-form STR effects on rents and sale prices (R1-R2). Table I (p.1038) estimates the same panel specification for neighborhood rent per square meter and house sale prices:

log⁡Yjt=βlog⁡(commercial Airbnb listingsjt)+γ′Xjt+μdt+εjt,\log Y_{jt}=\beta\log(\text{commercial Airbnb listings}_{jt})+\gamma'X_{jt}+\mu_{dt}+\varepsilon_{jt},

where XjtX_{jt} includes housing stock, average income, and high-skill population share, and μdt\mu_{dt} is district-by-year fixed effects in the fullest specification. The IV is a shift-share instrument using worldwide Airbnb search activity as the shift and neighborhood exposure based on historic monuments as the share. Table I reports OLS and IV models with and without controls and district-year fixed effects; standard errors are clustered by wijk. The full-control, district-year-FE samples contain 763 rent observations and 737 sale-price observations. First-stage F-statistics are 69.66 for rents and 65.9 for sale prices. Table I coefficients and these design details are recorded in R1-R2.

Amenity-supply GMM (R3, R11). Equation (24) is estimated jointly for six sectors with sector-specific tenancy-stock instruments from (25), location and year effects, a three-way 22-district panel over 2008-2018, and Bayesian-bootstrap standard errors. It imposes nonnegative supply parameters. The reported tourist-demand effects and separate household-type response patterns are in Table III (p.1054) and text p.1053. The precinct-year-FE sensitivity check is reported as not significantly changing estimates (Supplemental Appendix A.7.2, referenced on p.1053).

Local preference estimation and household counterfactuals (R4-R5, R8, R13). Equations (26)-(29) are estimated separately for Older Families, Singles, and Younger Families with two-step optimal GMM, location and time fixed effects, and seven instruments for endogenous rents and amenities. The data describe Amsterdam districts and the 2008-2018 estimation period; Table IV reports 233,772 state-path observations per type and two-step efficient GMM standard errors. Counterfactuals compare stationary equilibria under estimated heterogeneous preferences with population-weighted homogeneous amenity preferences (Figure 9, p.1064), report sectoral Gini dispersion (Table VII, p.1065), and compare pre-STR, post-STR with fixed amenities, and post-STR with endogenous amenities (Figure 10, p.1066). Welfare is measured as a consumption equivalent relative to income. Table IV preference coefficients and willingness-to-pay translations are in R8, sorting and welfare comparisons in R4-R5, and sectoral spatial dispersion in R13.

Tourist neighborhood demand (R9). Taking log odds of choosing an STR location relative to the hotel outside option yields:

log⁡PjtST−log⁡PtH=δjST+δtST+δpSTlog⁡pjt+δaSTlog⁡ajt+ξjtST.\log P^{ST}_{jt}-\log P^H_t=\delta^{ST}_j+\delta^{ST}_t+\delta^{ST}_p\log p_{jt}+\delta^{ST}_a\log a_{jt}+\xi^{ST}_{jt}.

The paper estimates a yearly panel of 95 neighborhoods over 2015-2018, with neighborhood and year effects; the review-controlled specification adds Airbnb review scores. Standard errors are clustered by wijk. Table V (p.1061) reports 371 baseline observations and 370 review-controlled observations. Coefficients are not statistically different between the two specifications (text p.1061), which the authors treat as suggestive evidence against material time-varying omitted location quality.

Landlord housing-supply choice (R10). The log odds of supplying long-term rather than short-term floor space yields the main estimating equation:

log⁡HjtLT,S−log⁡HjtST,S=α(rjt−pjt)+κj+κt+νjt.\log\mathcal{H}^{LT,S}_{jt}-\log\mathcal{H}^{ST,S}_{jt}=\alpha(r_{jt}-p_{jt})+\kappa_j+\kappa_t+\nu_{jt}.

The IV uses predicted tourist demand from worldwide Airbnb search volume interacted with neighborhood historic-attraction exposure. Table VI (p.1062) uses 92 locations over 2015-2017; the preferred IV specification includes wijk and year fixed effects, clusters standard errors by wijk, and has 275 observations. Its first-stage F-statistic is 3.24. The text reports the implied change in relative STR market share for a one-standard-deviation price-gap increase (R10).

Model fit and policy counterfactuals (R12, R14). The authors simulate a stationary equilibrium for 2017 using estimated parameters, observed rents and amenities as the solver initialization, perfect foresight, zero steady-state demand shocks, and calibrated landlord costs. Figures 7-8 (p.1063) compare simulated with observed rents, STR prices, and amenities. Figure 12 (p.1068) compares consumer surplus as a share of income as STR and touristic-amenity tax rates rise. STR-tax welfare is increasing for every modeled household type; responses to the touristic-amenity tax differ by type, with Older Families gaining and Singles and Younger Families losing.

DatasetRole in paperWiki page
CBS residential cadaster (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Netherlands)Individual-level annual residential histories for universe of Dutch residents; key panel for location choice estimationno page yet
CBS tax return dataHousehold income, educational attainment, employment status, ethnic background; source for household type classificationno page yet
CBS housing unit tax appraisal panel 2006-2020Property values, tenancy status, geo-coordinates, quality measures for universe of Dutch residential unitsno page yet
CBS national rent survey 2006-2019Rental prices per neighborhood; imputed via random forest and CBS valuations (Mullainathan and Spiess 2017)no page yet
Amsterdam City Data BBGA (ACD)Annual neighborhood-level demographics, amenity establishment counts, tourist inflows; 95 wijk / 22 districts, 2008-2018; publicly available at ACD BBGAno page yet
ACD Tourism dataCity-level tourist overnight stays and hotel room counts; public via ACD Tourism portalno page yet
Inside AirbnbMonthly web-scraped listing-level STR data for Amsterdam (prices per night, calendar availability, reviews); used to construct commercial listings time seriesno page yet

Sample period: 2008-2018 (annual). Household type classification uses the CBS panel of 672,093 households. Amenity supply estimated on 22 districts. Housing demand estimated on 22 districts with 46 individual states per type per year.

Read the original if you are: (i) building a structural spatial equilibrium model with endogenous amenities and need the full equilibrium existence/uniqueness arguments (Supplemental Appendix A.4); (ii) running welfare counterfactuals for STR regulation in a city with heterogeneous amenity demand and need the CE calculation formulas (Supplemental Appendix A.5); (iii) implementing the ECCP estimator for dynamic location choice and need the finite-dependence / renewal-action derivation (Supplemental Appendix A.6); or (iv) using CBS microdata or ACD BBGA for Amsterdam and need the exact variable construction (Supplemental Appendix A.2). Tables I, III, IV, VI are the main empirical anchors; Figures 9, 10, 12 are the main counterfactual exhibits.

Source: peer-reviewed, Econometrica 93(3) (May 2025). This distillation was extracted by an LLM on 2026-06-26 and is not human-verified or independently reproduced. The CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licence permits non-commercial use with attribution and no modifications; the verbatim PDF is not hosted here.

Attribution (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Almagro, Milena, and Tomás Domínguez-Iino. “Location Sorting and Endogenous Amenities: Evidence From Amsterdam.” Econometrica 93, no. 3 (May 2025): 1031-1071. DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21394. © 2025 The Authors. Licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. This page is a distillation by the Institute for Automated Research: core results extracted and re-expressed. The licence prohibits modifications and commercial use; this extract is used for non-commercial research reference only.

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